Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) stated Friday that 99.9% of Americans will survive COVID-19, suggesting the US has over-reacted – because humans crave predictability and support. A NOVEL pandemic defies predictability, igniting a healthcare gold rush toward new tests, treatments and cures. An ELECTION year begs politicians to show we the people how much they care and how smart they are. If previous investment booms and government fixes are the standard, there will be more losers than winners.
This is money-making time, because COVID-19 has exposed bad ideas (whose days are numbered) and good ideas (whose days are coming). Two truths drive tomorrow’s economy: crowd-transaction businesses are bad and “sanitary” anything is good. Start with the obvious.
- Movie theaters (as we know them) are dead. Their stocks have fallen 75% since 2017. With the exception of teens (who want to escape their parents), 4K big-screen televisions, surround sound and streaming content are more convenient and less expensive. To wit, Universal just bypassed theaters to release Trolls 2 online ($20). Plus, Netflix added 16 million subscribers this year, while Disney Plus added 22 million subscribers in the last two months.
- Commercial real estate is highly leveraged and dependent on debt-laden retailers (e.g. JCPenney). Companies go broke because they can’t pay their bills, which is why Cheesecake Factory paid no April rent. Mass-dining restaurants (e.g. buffet-only Souplantation is closing all 97 locations) fail the sanitary test. Amazon makes many big-box retailers (e.g. Bed, Bath and Beyond) redundant. ZOOM makes rent in un-sanitary office buildings an un-competitive cost.
Some crowd-transaction events, such as rock concerts and NFL games, will remain. Concert-goers are generally young (not at-risk). The NFL plays outdoors, and tailgates are friends/family only. The venues will test and exclude fevers, and event staff will be masked and gloved – because Adele and Aaron Rodgers aren’t coming to your house via Amazon.
Sanitation is a sound investment: what prevents COVID-19 also prevents the seasonal flu and common cold (fewer missed days = profound economic impact). Up-trends include infra-red thermometers (we already test daily), office re-modeling (farewell open floor plans), UV-C robots to sweep rooms, anti-microbial air systems, and Purell. A local orthodontist just installed a system that cleans the office “with ionized particles of hydrogen peroxide.”
A big change is coming to travel and leisure, where crowds will go down and prices will go up. In short, the democratization of travel is over (fewer college kids and young families crowding onto the plane). Airlines (and hotels) will disinfect between flights (stays), screen for fever, and eliminate touch points. The value proposition is simple: pick two from price + sanitation + availability. Hint: I’m going with sanitation and availability.
I predict the biggest change is where Americans live, beginning with an exodus from metro New York (420,000 fled after February). The I Hate New York argument is convincing. First, single-family living and less-crowded public spaces are healthier. Second, conservatives are taking stock and rejecting high taxes, bankrupt governments, and totalitarian governance. CNN can smear Michigan’s open-up protestors, but that Democrat governor repulsed at least half of America.
Without question, panic will give way to thoughtful home economics, and right-thinking Americans will vote with their pocketbooks and feet. Go long Florida, Netflix, Amazon, and preachers who comfort. Short Illinois, the local cineplex, New York bars, and governors who castigate.