After Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary and Joe Biden fled to South Carolina, Senate Democrat Ben Cardin predicted President Trump‘s re-election because “you see the support base that he has and recognize that the electoral map is not the popular map.” Just like Chris Matthews and James Carville, Cardin sees a “liberal” party that’s too liberal. The fear is twofold: Sanders’ un-electability and the Trump economy.
After the last Democrat debate, Chris Matthews explained his anxiety: “the issue of [the Sanders] campaign is that word ‘socialism.’ Some people like it – younger people like it. I don’t like it, OK? It’s not only not free, it doesn’t work.” Matthews knows Sanders cannot win because this isn’t “a revolutionary period in our country’s history.” In short, the electorate won’t lurch toward socialism and all-powerful central state.
Matthews continued, “Bernie’s gonna ride high and he’s finally gonna get scrutiny.” He knows a populist Republican awaits with palatable talking points. Union members can keep their private health plans. Black Christians have a pro-life ally. Blue-collar workers don’t have college-tuition loans. Bankers and business leaders can avoid higher taxes and regulations.
James Carville, the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory, admits he’s “scared to death” by today’s Democrats. “We’ve got to be a majoritarian party [and] the urban core is not going to get it done.” His fear’s data-based: “Look, the turnout in the Iowa caucus was below what we expected [and] Trump’s approval rating is probably as high as it’s ever been.” Carville blames his party’s presidential candidates.
“We have candidates on the debate stage talking about open borders and decriminalizing illegal immigration…doing away with nuclear energy and fracking. You’ve got Bernie Sanders talking about letting criminals and terrorists vote from jail cells…that’s not how you win a national election [or] become a majoritarian party.” Carville prays Blacks, Hispanics and women turn out to vote. Good luck with that.
Democrats wasted three years telling voters what they oppose (Trump) and not what they support. Progressive Democrats are uniting behind Bernie Sanders, who has the funding and ground game to campaign into Milwaukee. Party centrists must choose between free-falling Joe Biden, two regional brands (Buttigieg and Klobuchar), and a former Republican (Bloomberg) spending billions to piss off Sanders’ supporters.
Let’s get back to Ben Cardin. Trump’s New Hampshire base voted in numbers (120,000 votes) that dwarfed previous incumbents’ primary results. That’s real SUPPORT – so how does a divided party defeat an incumbent in an era of widespread prosperity and relative peace? The guess here is they do not.