I am no better, and neither are you. We’re all the same whatever we do. You love me, you hate me, you know me and then; you can’t figure out the bag I’m in. I am everyday people.
Sly Stone (1968 pop song)
The maps above are what Toolshed Tuesday looked like. The right map shows partisan swings by county (voters ran away from Harris like she had on a goalie mask and held a chainsaw). The left map shows the geographic breadth of the MAGA movement (a sea of red counties that don’t harbor “deplorable” or “fascist” or “garbage” voters). These MAGA counties are home to decent folks, who work with and transport materials, and serve us where we eat and shop. The are indispensable to our democracy – not a threat to it.
Thus, Donald Trump returns to Washington with a mandate that Democrats had better respect, because his victory was clearly driven by voters remorse for electing Biden-Harris; as in 81.3 million votes then and 71.3 million for Harris-Walz today. 75% of voters said “inflation is a hardship” and 68% said “the economy is not good” (source: AP/NORC). So, after comparing life under Trump to life under Biden, and hearing Harris promise NO CHANGE, voters knew what to do.
The Mandate Unpacked
Trump swept all seven battleground states on his way to winning 33 states, 312 electoral votes, and 51.3% of the popular vote. His coattails helped flip the Senate, retain the House (need just 1 win in 6 races they are leading), and ensure GOP predominance across America (27 governors and 58% of state legislators). His win was too decisive for detractors to doubt his legitimacy (race called at 4:34 AM Wednesday, and Harris lost the popular vote). In fact, the Democrats that ousted the winner (Biden) of their primaries and RINOs that sat out the biggest GOP win since 1988 are now the “illegitimate” pols.
Who’d even listen to Barack Obama or Liz Cheney tomorrow? Not the Silent Majority who, despite the cries of “fascist” from the Clintons and Obamas, still waited in long lines to vote for Trump. Not the racially diverse Moral Majority who, despite the “racist” lectures from the old white men (e.g. Stephen Colbert) on late night TV, still voted against a black woman. Seriously, Barack and Cher looked old and in the way. Trump’s victory begs the question: who is relevant to Americans today?
Is it the beautiful-and-young biracial Vances or wrinkled-and-old white Clintons, battle-hardened peacenik Tulsi Gabbard or stay-at-home warhawk Liz Cheney, new-media Megyn Kelly and Joe Rogan or old-media Joy Behar and Chris Wallace, future-wealth creator Elon Musk or share-the-wealth socialist Bernie Sanders? Harris lost 49% of men aged 18-29 and 53% of men aged 30-44 because Bill Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, and Mark Cuban are so yesterday.
The Last Days of DEI
Mark it down: November 5, 2024, the day identity politics died. Because Trump’s support from Hispanic men (54%) was exactly the same as his support from all American men. He also won 38% of Hispanic women, and increased his voting support from Blacks (+7%) and Asians (+4%). Blacks and Hispanics are 81% of Passaic (NJ): Trump won 53% of its vote. Miami Dade (FL) is 69% Hispanic and 17% Black: he won 55.4% of its vote. One cannot overstate the importance of these shifts, not after Americans have been so tormented by race since the Obamas hooked the Democrat Party on identity politics.
Democrats thought the “coalition of the ascendant” (Asians, Blacks and Hispanics) that turned out for Obama in 2008 was the party’s future, so they pushed social policies that presumed America was built on bigotry. They started with endorsing race-based curricula and defunding the police, and went all in by putting transgenders before biological girls, and Hamas demonstrators before Jewish students. The not-surprising result was the loss of Black Baptists, Hispanic Catholics, Jews, and White Evangelicals.
The political consequences were staggering. Catholics are 23% of the US: Trump won 58% of their vote. White Evangelicals are 21%: he won 82% of their vote. He won a record 46% of the Jewish vote (source: AP/NORC). Democrats forgot the Church is “community” to 79% of Americans, religious tenets like “love thy neighbor” transcend racial demagoguery, and church-goers are the bedrock of E Pluribus Unum.
He Won’t Get Fooled Again
Trump 2016 went to Washington like a lamb to the slaughter, but not this time. He returns having won the popular vote and gaining in many blue states (e.g. New Jersey) and almost every demographic, despite the non-stop allegations of crimes, fraud, and treason. He’s self-funding the transition to keep deep-state moles in the dark in order to limit damaging leaks and subversion. This White House will be filled with experience, expertise, and loyalty (because a new Resistance will look for dirt).
A partisan Deep State is a given in DC, but Trump now knows their playbook, and voters now know their history. Voters in 2024 know Democrats schemed and funded false claims (Trump-Russia collusion) to remove Trump from power, and Democrats did irreparable harm once they regained power. From now on Trump can say “this dirt has all the earmarks of a Democrat-Big Media hit job” or “Democrats created this problem that my policy is going to solve” – and a majority of Americans will believe him.
Still, the single act of brilliance is recruiting a “starting five” to battle entrenched Washington interests. Whereas Trump was once all alone, it’s now Bobby Kennedy selling Make America Healthy Again, Tulsi Gabbard fighting the neocon war-mongers, Elon Musk cutting government costs, Vivek Ramaswamy attacking Big Media censorship, and J.D. Vance defending policies that put US citizens first – on Tucker Carlson’s, Megyn Kelly’s, and Joe Rogan’s shows, if they wish.
First Things First
No question, Trump will use executive orders to fast-track closing the border, deporting criminal illegal aliens, down-sizing DEI programs, promoting domestic energy production, and protecting girls’ sports, along with weakening Iran and criminal cartels. His advantage this time is that – after Biden’s executive orders made these problems worse – voters have given Trump a mandate. Which is to say any network interviewer defending the Biden-Harris status quo will lose viewers fast.
Expect Congress to rush three bills to the President’s desk: (1) the American Confidence in Elections (ACE) Act that needs to be in place before the 2026 mid-terms, (2) the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act that will now have bipartisan support, and (3) a bill expanding and making the 2017 tax cuts permanent. These are important politically and practically.
It is essential to force election integrity (proof of citizenship and photo ID) on all 50 states to stop Democrat cheating. Virginia’s victory in the Supreme Court means the bill can work through lower courts until the Supreme Court makes it the permanent law of the land. It is politically astute to pass a law protecting girls sports that invites more absurd comments from woke-liberal Democrats before the 2026 mid-terms. It is an economic necessity to pass a tax bill that helps businesses, consumers, and investors believe in tomorrow. After these three bills, it can become legislative business as usual.
What the Future Holds
Republicans, assuming they avoid extreme policies (e.g. closing the EPA), is poised to enter a Golden Age of conservative governance because of consequential population and demographic shifts.
Start with young men and women shifting to Trump in 2024. A comparison of the 2020 and 2024 NEP exit polls shows Trump gained eleven points with women aged 18-29, seven points with all voters aged 18 to 29, and four points with all voters aged 18 to 44. No question, they like the idea of lowering consumer prices and interest rates, and having affordable and plentiful housing. The guess here is that US energy independence, less government spending, fewer banking regulations, and no taxes on tips doesn’t look like fascism to them.
The real reason Claire McCaskill and Nancy Pelosi were crying Wednesday was knowing DEXIT (Dems leaving the party) is a real thing. Hispanics are no longer “minority” voters, young voters are no longer woke-liberals, and 2030 reapportionment will shift 13 electoral votes (and House seats) from blue states to red states, ensuring our democracy looks more like Texas and Florida (and less like California) in the future.
Poor Nancy. The icing on the conservative cake is that the most liberal voting bloc (single women with college degrees) averages a fraction of one child per household. In contrast, conservative Catholics, Evangelical Christians, Hassidic Jews, and Mormons average 1.9 to 3.4 children per household. I hate to be crude, but it’s only a matter of time before conservatism breeds its way into political predominance (data from Pew Research).
Coming Next Week
In the next post, we’ll look at how (and why) so many polling firms got it wrong, and completely unpack the election by demographics and issues. Spoiler alert: they could not figure out the bag one’s in and ignored everyday people.