Kamala Harris has spent all week comparing her political opponents to the most evil mass murderers in history. Now, on top of everything, Joe Biden calls our supporters “garbage.” You can’t lead America if you don’t love the American People.
Donald Trump (October 30 in Rocky Mount, NC)
In 2014, Barack Obama credited not doing “stupid shit” for his success; so, of course, Democrats spent the next ten years doing and saying one stupid thing after another, culminating in the July Palace Coup that put Kamala Harris atop the Democrat ticket. Nice try, but only 13% of voters said “the country is on the right track” last week (source: Reuters). Which is to say voters will turn November 5th into Toolshed Tuesday for Ms. Harris.
No question, Biden was in a free fall, but Harris has not restored Biden’s 2020 voting blocs. The table below measures the support for Democrat Harris and Republican Trump from key 10 voting blocs; comparing Harris 2024 to Biden 2020, and Trump 2024 to Trump 2020.
| VOTING BLOC | HARRIS 2024 VS. BIDEN 2020 | TRUMP 2024 VS. TRUMP 2020 |
| Women | – 3 | + 2 |
| Men | TIE | + 1 |
| Whites | + 1 | – 1 |
| Latinos | – 7 | + 6 |
| Blacks | – 8 | + 6 |
| Asians | – 12 | + 12 |
| Ages 18-29 | – 5 | + 6 |
| Suburban | – 2 | + 4 |
| Independents | – 6 | + 6 |
| Working Class | – 6 | + 6 |
The table’s numbers are averages of the cross tabs from 2020-voter exit polls and this week’s widely reported pre-election polls (e.g. New York Times). Kamala’s numbers are generally bad, but look at her loss of Asian support to understand the politics. Not only did Affirmative Action pit Democrats against Asians in a Supreme Court case, Vivek Ramaswamy has been a non-stop reminder to Asians that woke policies are harmful to their kids.
NO Democrat Positives
While Democrats campaign against the “wild shit” Trump says, he’s out there talking to voters about America being at a tipping point. Red China sets working-class wages, illegal migrants take jobs from native-born citizens, innominate private-equity polymaths are rolling up family businesses, and everyday folks are paying the price.
While MSNBC hates Trump’s cheap shots at Biden and Harris, most voters don’t mind because they blame Biden-Harris for sky-high prices, murders committed by illegals, and today’s $35.8 trillion national debt. Many new Trump voters see him as the tetanus shot (don’t like it, but it likes you) needed to improve their standards of living, deport illegal aliens from ill-prepared small towns like Springfield (OH), and stop two proxy wars from turning into world wars.
Likewise, everyday folks hear the “stupid shit” said by Harris and her surrogates; her calling Trump “Hitler” and Walz calling Musk “that gay guy,” Biden calling Trump supporters “garbage” and Obama scolding black men, as well as Mark Cuban saying “no strong, intelligent women” support Trump and Liz Cheney make-believing Trump threatened her with a firing squad of “nine guns.” It’s just so junior high.
And when the October Surprise came? It spelled R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N: only 12,000 new jobs, but 112,000 new downward revisions, 46,000 lost manufacturing jobs, and “unemployed workers relative to the size of the labor force going up at an alarming rate” (source: Forbes). The current Unemployed to Labor Force Ratio is at recession levels – like it was in 1980 for Carter, 1992 for Bush, 2000 for Gore, and 2020 for Trump – and voters will blame Harris.
Don’t Bet Against Trump
Aging faces (Clinton) and fear mongering (Obama) won’t lower the price of petrol, reduce the national debt, or remove criminal aliens from US soil, so why would the Washington Post endorse Harris? Bezos is rich because he sees the world the way it is, like Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) recruiting better Senate candidates, RNC chair Michael Whatley hiring armies of lawyers to ensure a fair election, and RNC co-chair Lara Trump force-multiplying the GOP ground game with 3,250,000 zealots from the Faith and Freedom Coalition and Turning Point USA.
If Bezos smells a Trump win, it’s because Trump’s RCP “favorability” average rose from 39% in 2022 to 45.3% today, and his 50% “unfavorable” is lower than Biden’s 57% and Harris’s 53% (source: Wall Street Journal). History shows that every Democrat since 1988 with a “net unfavorable” lost the Electoral College; so, Harris’s 46.9% favorable and 49.8% unfavorable signals doom. PREDICTION: Trump wins 288 electoral votes to her 252.
Betting markets have been wrong in only two presidential elections since 1884, and the RCP betting average has Trump’s odds of winning at 60.8% to her 38%. Plus, Trump has a 0.3 point lead over Harris in the RCP popular-vote average (he trailed by 7.2 points in 2020 and 3.3 points in 2016). PREDICTION: Trump wins 50.9% of the popular vote to her 49.1%.
Through Friday, the GOP had registered 1.8 million more new voters in swing states than Democrats, the Times reported the two parties at registration parity, and the share of 2024 early votes was 48.5% (R) and 51.5% (D) – compared to 40.5% (R) and 59.5% (D) in 2020 (source: University of Florida Election Lab). That’s an improved GOP ground game that extends to congressional races. PREDICTION: Republicans flip 5 Senate seats and hold a slim majority in the House.
Election predictions are not guarantees. Still, it’s absurd to expect a Harris win, which is why I’ll close with this week’s memo from GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio:
“In every swing state, Trump is polling better than in 2020 by a significant margin. I point this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, but to illustrate just how close this election is and that victory is within our reach.”