If current polling and early-voting trends continue, a GOP Congress will enact Trump’s big ideas to restore (1) economic dynamism, (2) national safety, and (3) societal normalcy to the USA. It’s as simple as killing Biden’s bad ideas, down-sizing federal employment, and enacting policies that lower household costs of living and business costs of operating. Shame on Democrats, whose COVID-recovery spending increased government debt 23.6% to $35.8 trillion and triggered near-record inflation, and whose Green New Deal disrupted the $1.7 trillion energy sector and its 8.1 million employees (and triggered a 40% spike in the cost of a gallon of petrol).
Drill, Baby, Drill
Trump’s plan to restore economic dynamism starts with lowering the cost of energy for businesses and households. A gallon of petrol averaged $2.48 under Trump (low of $2.17) and $3.49 under Biden (high of $5.07). Since 2015, the US has consumed on average 138.9 billion gallons of petrol per year; so, a return to Trump’s petroleum policies will save the US economy $128 billion annually in on-the-road transport costs (don’t forget air, rail, and seas).
CBS News reports electricity now costs 28.5% more than in 2019 (from $0.14 to $0.18 per kilowatt hour). The average annual electricity costs for 127 million US households rose from $2,610 to $3,600 under Biden; so, a return to Trump’s electricity prices will save US homeowners $126 billion annually (and the entire economy $328 billion per year).
Another part of Trump’s plan is boosting energy exports to reduce Biden’s record trade deficit ($855 billion annually). Ramping up domestic fossil-fuel production not only improves our balance of trade, it lowers production costs across every economic sector; thereby inviting price rollbacks to lower everyday folks’ cost of living.
Plus, putting money in consumers’ and businesses’ pockets, and increasing exports of US coal, oil and gas, boosts taxable income. What’s not to like?
Cutting the Government Down to Size
Let’s assume Elon Musk can reduce today’s federal headcount (3,000,000 civilian employees averaging $106,405 annually) by 80%. That would result in $254 billion in annual savings, but begs the question what happens to government services? The guess here is that (1) states, funded by federal block grants, will perform many services, (2) ending bureaucratic mission creep will result in fewer costly programs and regulations, and (3) 600,000 employees can use AI to manage the remaining programs.
Further, competition for fewer jobs will re-focus government employees on broadly serving we the people, rather than pursuing narrow partisan interests and pet boondoggles. This makes Washington ripe for conservatives to reduce the national debt (saving $500 billion a year reduces the national debt to $23.3 trillion by 2050). This is of paramount importance to our economy, because a culture of restraint and solvency signals to the world that America is up to the BRIC’s reserve-currency challenge.
Deporting Biden’s Illegal Immigrants
Newsweek reports that 10,146,000 undocumented immigrants have entered the US under President Biden – 7.1 million more than under President Trump – including 107,000 criminals. Biden moved millions of “refugees” into unsuspecting communities like Springfield, Ohio (pop. 60,000), which was not equipped financially or emotionally to provide asylum to 20,000 destitute aliens.
Besides taking jobs from native-born Americans, Biden’s aliens require 11.1 billion liters of fresh water, 11.1 billion meals, 500,000 seats in public schools, $2.5 billion in housing assistance every year, and medical care that could go to US citizens. Thousands of Biden’s illegal aliens have committed violent crimes; thereby triggering anger and anxiety nationwide.
Somewhere between one to four million undocumented immigrants will be deported under a Trump administration; the financial equivalent of tax cuts for working-class communities across America (once there’s less competition for benefits, commodities, housing, and jobs). Moreover, the emotional lift of being heard and heeded will put pep in the step of many millions of job-seeking and tax-paying citizens.
Harris Campaign Failing
The incontrovertible truth in this election is that Donald Trump is the known known in voters’ minds. Less certain is what voters think of Kamala Harris; what she actually did on Biden’s watch, how credible her policy flip-flops are, what she’s saying in her TV interviews, and which press reports are true. Less than two weeks out, it’s a good time to compare her Real Clear Politics polling averages to her Democrat peers in 2016 and 2020 – and she pales in comparison.
| Clinton 2016 | Biden 2020 | Harris 2024 | |
| RCP Betting Odds | 88.0% | 63.8% | 38.3% |
| RCP Net Favorable | – 6.0 | + 6.6 | – 3.2 |
| RCP National | + 6.1 | + 7.9 | – 0.1 |
| RCP Arizona | + 1.5 | + 3.2 | – 1.5 |
| RCP Georgia | – 4.0 | + 0.8 | – 2.2 |
| RCP Michigan | + 11.0 | + 7.8 | -0.2 |
| RCP Nevada | + 4.7 | + 5.2 | – 0.7 |
| RCP North Carolina | + 2.9 | + 1.8 | – 0.8 |
| RCP Pennsylvania | + 6.2 | + 4.9 | – 0.6 |
| RCP Wisconsin | + 6.5 | + 4.6 | – 0.2 |
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) betting average has Trump’s odds of winning at 60.7% to Harris at 38.3% – important because this average has been historically predictive of the popular vote winner. No question, Harris had a very bad week; sinking betting odds, worsening net unfavorables, and the RCP average Saturday showing her down 0.1 to Trump nationally.
The RCP Net Favorable is historically predictive of electoral votes for Democrats (net negatives for losers Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and H. Clinton…net positives for winners B. Clinton, Obama, and Biden). It’s logical: voters should like a candidate selling big change like Obamacare or the Green New Deal. And, not only has Kamala’s “net favorable” turned negative (-2.8), Trump’s “net favorable” of -4.8 is his best since January 1, 2017.
Which is to say Trump should win the Electoral College. As of Friday, the RCP average had him ahead in all seven battlegrounds (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI). Further, Republicans have cast 39% of 32.9 million early ballots, against Democrats with 43% (a big change from 2020, when Republicans cast 36% of early ballots, against 53% by Democrats, and a trend that continued through the weekend).
No guarantee of a Trump victory – not yet – but proof positive of the GOP’s improved situation from 2020.