Kamala Harris’ popularity is tanking. A recent NBC News poll showed a significant drop in her popularity from September – from a 48% positive rating versus 45% negative (net +3) to 43% positive and 49% negative (net -6). That’s not the kind of trajectory any candidate wants just weeks from the election.
USA Today editorial (October 16)
A USA today writer claims Kamala Harris went on Fox News – where an adversarial journalist awaited – for one reason: “She’s scared.” Because her popularity advantage over Republican Donald Trump has not only dropped since September, it is much lower than (winner) Joe Biden’s in 2020 – and even lower than (loser) Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Kamala’s macro-problem is that – since the highs of Barack Obama – her party has piddled away support from traditionally Democrat voting blocs.
This is illustrated in two charts (above) that use the Real Clear Politics polling averages to show (1) Harris has nowhere near the favorability advantage that her boss Joe Biden enjoyed in 2020, and (2) Trump’s favorability has steadily risen since 2016, while his un-favorability has steadily fallen. Thus, anyone predicting the 2024 election’s outcome must bake in MORE supporters and FEWER haters for Trump, and FEWER supporters and MORE haters for his Democrat opponent, than in either 2016 or 2020.
The cross tabs in numerous polls show that Harris (and Democrats in general) have lost male voters, as well as Black men, Catholics, Jews, Latinos and working-class households (him and her). Pew Research reported on the 10th that only 43% of male registered voters support Harris (51% for Trump), and Rasmussen reported on the 13th that only 43% of male likely voters say they will vote for Harris (52% for Trump). This week, Atlas Intel reported her male support at only 46.8% in Arizona, 43.7% in Georgia, and 44.8% in Wisconsin, and Emerson reported that she trails Trump by an average of 10 points in 7 battleground states.
This election is the ultimate battle of the sexes. The woman married to Mr. Mom, running with a “knucklehead” assistant coach, supported by preachy women who support transgender rights and oppose red-state protections for the unborn? Or the man married to a former model, running with a “rags to riches” graduate of Yale Law School, supported by working-class men who oppose boys playing girls sports and blue-state protections for illegal immigrants?
The problem extends beyond lost male voters. Pew Research reported last week that Harris’s Latino support was down 8 points from Biden 2020. Earlier, the New York Times reported that over 50% of New York state’s Jews supported Trump, and that Harris was down 19 points with Black men from Biden 2020. In September, Pew Research reported that 52% of Catholics (61% of white Catholics) and 61% of Protestants (82% of white evangelicals) say they will vote against Harris.
It gets worse for Harris, Newsweek reported this month that “Donald Trump has the most working-class support of any GOP candidate in 40 years.” She, in fact, trails Trump among working-class voters by 17 points – 13 points worse than Biden 2020 and identical to Biden’s working-class deficit right before he dropped out (source: The New York Times). Adding insult to injury, the UAW and Teamsters refused to endorse Harris because most of their members support Trump. Spoiler alert: working-class voters were 61% of all voters in 2020 and 58% in the 2022 mid-terms.
Harris faces a two-headed obstacle. The first is the Moral Majority that resents four years of Biden-Harris left-liberalism: i.e. support for biological boys playing in girls sports, gender transitions funded by tax payers, late-term abortions of viable fetuses, and anti-semitism on college campuses. The second is the Silent Majority that blames four years of Biden-Harris policies for millions of illegal aliens crossing US borders, rising crime, and widespread cost-of-living increases.
If a majority of Americans are skeptical of the poster gal for identity politics, Harris can blame Mr. Obama, who led an ineffective recovery from the Great Recession, and Ms. Clinton, who concocted Russiagate and then blamed Russian interference for her loss in 2016. Both left the White House to amass fortunes, live in wealthy enclaves, and talk down to everyday Americans. It begs the question: do top Democrats care about we the people?
Hillary suggested that Americans who spread pro-Trump “propaganda” should be charged with a crime (source: Newsweek). Barack scolded black men for not supporting Harris. Kamala accepted a ballot-free nomination. What happened to free speech, free will, and the primacy of electing our leaders? Vanished – and that’s why Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, and Bobby Kennedy left the Democrat Party.
| 2024 Election Forecast | |||||
| July | August | September | October | Election Day (est.) | |
| Harris Net Favorability (NBC) | -17 | – | +3 | -6 | Loses Electoral College |
| Trump Betting Odds (RCP) | +48.2 | -8.8 | -3.2 | +16.9 | Wins 50.8% All Votes |
| Trump Battleground Lead (RCP) | +4.1 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +0.8 | Wins AZ, GA, NV, PA, MI |
| GOP Senate Seats | 50 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 55 Seats |
There is a correlation between Democrat net favorability and electoral votes: Clinton and Biden averaged a 14.4-point advantage over Trump (dropping at least 4 points in the week before the Election). If NBC has Harris at net-6, and the RCP average has her at net-0.3, it portends disaster on Election Day. NBC’s net-favorability poll, in fact, tracks Kamala’s coverage by the press; awful truths to glowing spin to awful truths.
The betting odds have always predicted the popular vote winner, and my formula predicts Trump wins 50.8% – as of today – though one must allow for blue-state election laws and hurricane-ravaged red states.
Moreover, the three main polling averages now have Trump leading in all seven battleground state; which squares with my prediction that Harris loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (and the electoral vote), and ekes out wins in North Carolina and Wisconsin (maybe).
Republicans began the Senate race with West Virginia in the bag, ensuring a tied chamber (50 seats). In September, Montana was as good as flipped red (51 seats). This week, two polls (Morning Consult and Fabrizio Lee) found Republican challenger Moreno surging past Democrat incumbent Brown in Ohio (52 seats). Republicans have also shaved 2.1 to 4.1 points off Democrat leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – now tied or comfortably within the margin of error. If presidential and senate polls stay on the current trend, the bet here is 55 GOP seats in the Senate.