The last presidential election was an “Oh, sh*t” moment for the Democrat Party’s pollsters: Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by a closer margin than a lot of the polling suggested, and Democrats were projected to expand their House majority but instead saw it shrink.
Steve Shepard (Politico)
Right after Kamala’s convention bounce, many legacy media outlets reported Harris with a 4-point lead. Prove it! Because..
Democrat David Axelrod immediately called out the “irrational exuberance” at his party’s convention, and his fellow Democrat James Carville put it to their party straight last Tuesday: “When you see a poll that says we two up, well, that’s actually, one down. Trump chronically under-polls, so we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College.” And, my polling average (Fox, Harris, Rasmussen, Trafalgar) now has Trump with a 2-point lead nationally.
Calm down, Republicans, because GOP election guru Karl Rove put it straight to you on Tuesday: “On this day in 2020, Biden was up 7.1% in the Real Clear Politics average, and at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 6.3. And today, Harris is up over Trump by 1.5.” True, and Trump closed the gap in 2020 to lose by only 42,000 votes in three states, and closed the gap in 2016 to become president with 304 electoral votes. And, after having Harris up by 8.8 points, the RCP betting odds now has Trump 49.3 to Harris 49.3. So much for the “convention bounce” predicted by MSNBC.
I’m not the only viewer not impressed by the “weird GOP” and “Democrat Joy” talking points. The New York Post’s Miranda Devine thought every moment was staged: “Between the ‘USA! USA!’ chants, Harris’ exhortations to God and country, and Tim Walz’s schmaltzy shtick as a Midwestern conservative, you could be forgiven for thinking you were at a Trump rally.” Artificial – just like Harris saying “my values have not changed” to explain her policy reversals to CNN’s Dana Bash.
Prove it, Kamala! Because Bush One is the only sitting VP to ever win the presidency, and Biden-Harris is no Reagan-Bush. With oodles of 2019 videos of her radical positions (e.g. slavery reparations) streaming on social media, Harris must prove what her values are. Moreover, Biden’s RCP average “favorability” is only 40.5% today, compared to Reagan leaving office at 68% (source: CBS News). In 1988, voters did not want to “change horses in mid-stream” because Reagan-Bush policies had it going:
- Inflation down from 12.5% to 4.4%
- Unemployment down from 10.8% to 5.3%
- Federal tax revenue up from $517 billion to $991 billion
- Stock market values up 88%
There’s a reason Harris has no policy page on her campaign website; the latest RCP polling average shows near-record-low approval for how Biden-Harris has handled America’s main issues: Economy (38.0%), Foreign Policy (38.0%), Immigration (34.0%), Inflation (34.8%), Crime (37.5%), and Israel-Palestine (29.4%). With approval that low, 82% positive press is not enough, which is why Newsweek opined, “basking in positive media coverage for weeks, but her honeymoon will end.”
Fact: Kamala’s “favorables” hovered at 40% from October 2021 to July 2024, when NO-MO-JOE shot them to the current 47.1% (source: RCP average). Is that spike sustainable? Not when regional media report the truth, like a recent story in the Maine Wire: “Kamala Harris, who once ridiculed Trump’s southern border wall as un-American, medieval, racist and wasteful, now backs southern border wall.” And then there’s Trump, who’s actually climbed in the RCP election average since February (see table below):
| Candidate | Late February | Late June | Late August |
| Republican (Trump) | 41.0% | 42.5% | 44.7% |
| Democrat (Biden-Harris) | 38.0% | 39.4% | 46.8% |
| Independent (Kennedy) | 13.7% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Kamala’s support has come from those “disillusioned progressives ready to cast Biden aside” who supported Kennedy (source: Reuters). Harris is up 8.8 points from Biden’s February low, while Kennedy is down 9.2 points from his February high. Meanwhile, Trump’s support has risen 3.7 points. And, in a two-way race, it’s now Harris 48.0% to Trump 46.2% (source: RCP average). Back to Carville’s words of wisdom: if we up two, then we down one. Translation: Trump might win the popular vote.
So how does Trump have low “favorables” since 2015, lag in the polls, get nothing but mostly bad press, and out-perform expert opinions, national polls, and party surveys when the votes count? Hard to say for sure, but I think three theories make the most sense.
One, Trump is an “open book” to voters; the name you know because hostile media helps Trump by keeping his name above the fold with negative press. Op-eds dissing Trump’s immigration position alienate native-born black men. Fact-checks of Trump’s inflation numbers alienate voters struggling with less purchasing power. Video clips dissing his “tone” remind many that Trump says the quiet part out loud. These are the low-trust voters that have been accruing to Trump since 2016.
Two, Hillary went home every weekend, Biden stayed in his basement, and Harris has done just one press interview. In contrast, Trump does numerous interviews, holds lots of rallies and town halls, and tweets to 90 million Twitter X followers every day. Talking in a small town, J.D. Vance made the big point: at least Trump makes the effort to show up in all of these out of the way places. It’s a big deal when Trump comes to town for the folks in forgotten America, where TRUMP signs and MAGA gear are everywhere and growing.
Three, in the last five presidential elections, voter turn-out exceeded the previous mid-term by 15% to 20% (about 30 million more ballots in 2020). Those are low-propensity voters, who don’t care about abortion or Trump’s lack of politesse. They are BIG ISSUE voters. Right now, that’s high prices and immigration; issues that 66% think Biden-Harris have mis-handled, which is why 67% think Biden-Harris has America headed in the wrong direction. No joke, and those low-propensity voters are leaning toward Trump (source: The Hill).
National polls are mis-weighted snapshots, so look to more reliable indicators. One is the Real Clear Betting Odds, which now have Trump and Harris tied. Another is the Rasmussen Daily Survey, which (after the Harris interview on CNN) has Trump up 2 points nationally. A third is Nate Silver’s Forecast, which now gives Trump a 52.4% chance of winning, compared to Harris with 47.3% chance. Which is to say this race is too close to call (unless one candidate self-destructs during the ABC debate).
As I made the Labor Day party rounds, conservatives were hot for good news after so much Kamala immersion, so here it is. The top Harris super PAC said their “numbers are much less rosy” than public surveys, and many Democrat pollsters admitted that “Trump still maintains a lot of advantages – even before the RFK, Jr. announcement” (source: Politico). Which is to say the polls are under-stating Trump’s support (again).