Walz was able to seize that moment and find a way to message for Democrats when they’re so desperately seeking a newer and clearer way to push back on Trump-Vance. Walz went viral after dubbing Trump and his running mate “just weird” on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. He quickly ascended on Harris’s shortlist.
Ivan’s Saric (Axios)
If you’re someone who believes that “too liberal” is no longer a category, you might think Governor Walz (D-MN) helps Kamala Harris in the Midwest. Her camp says the “folksy liberal” will win working-class voters, but I’m not convinced. Not when Minnesota’s GDP growth ranks 36th amongst all states, its economy ranks 26th, and its schools rank 17th (it’s also 22nd in crime control and 19th in population growth). That’s why Walz lost greater Minnesota (outside Minneapolis) by 23 points in 2022 – 13 points worse than Obama in 2012.
If left-liberal Harris had picked “centrist” Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA), it would’ve helped her in battleground states. She’s won a grand total of zero primary votes, had to walk back unpopular positions (e.g. fracking ban), and doesn’t need Walz. All he’s done is pass laws allowing teens to have irreversible sex-change surgeries, and illegal aliens to get driver’s licenses, health care and tuition. He’s made abortion a “fundamental right” into the ninth month, and wants to eliminate all fossil fuels and socialize all health insurance (source: The Hill). A liberal ticket just lurched left!
Walz Taunts = Circular Firing Squad
Trump knows better than anyone that Democrats project their damnable flaws on him. To wit, they proclaimed him a “threat to democracy” but embraced a voteless coronation of their 2024 presidential nominee. How “weird” (as in NOT normal) was it for Obama, Pelosi and Schumer to scheme Harris into the nomination as they did? Very, and if democracy dies in darkness, how “weird” is it that candidate Harris has yet to hold a single press conference or one-on-one interview?
It’s likely Walz’s ha-ha taunts of Trump as “weird” and Vance as “creepy” will open Pandora’s box – and they have. His “weird” joke about Trump’s border wall (“let me know how high it is. If it’s 25 feet, then I’ll invest in the thirty-foot ladder factory”) invited the GOP to blast his “sanctuary state” that skirts federal immigration laws, and Real Clear Politics to report that 65% of voters disapprove of Harris’s work as Border Czar. You want weird? Walz’s quip that “one person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness” when 60% of voters have a negative view of socialism.
Walz is one to talk about “creepy” politicians after his running mate’s explanation of the Biden-Harris position on Ukraine: “So, Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.”
You want creepy? Walz’s response to COVID; managing by decree for over a year, criminalizing curfew-and-mask mandates, issuing business-shutdown orders, installing a COVID hotline so Minnesotans could “snitch” on their neighbors, and telling Republicans to “mind your own damn business” when they protested on behalf of concerned parents and small-business owners.
You want really weird? Harris proclaiming her “pride” in being “the last person in the room with Biden” to discuss the US exit from Afghanistan that left the Taliban over 500,000 weapons, 70,000 vehicles, and 100 aircraft. Or Walz mandating tampon dispensers in boys bathrooms at Minnesota’s public middle schools (sixth-grade boys with tampons – imagine the possibilities).
You want really creepy? The entire Walz family during the George Floyd riots. Dad sat on his hands while arsonists and looters destroyed Minneapolis for three days. Sis tweeted the National Guard’s deployment plans to alert rioters. Mom opened windows to “smell the burning tire as long as I could” to feel a part of history. Dad responded to rioters occupying and burning a police headquarters by saying he would not be “oppressive” to Blacks because of his country’s “fundamental, institutional racism.”
Harris Doubles Down on Too Liberal
Know what’s “too liberal” in battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI)? A New York Times endorsement and running mate who calls GOP moms “creepy for removing books” from schools. Because 75% of those states’ electorates oppose gas-car bans that Harris-Walz emphatically support, and those moms are actually taking explicit sexual content out of middle schools. True, and how will these states’ voters, who are 70% white, react to the DEI double-down: Walz ordering race-based lesson plans in schools, and Harris embracing Black reparations?
Harris was reckless to snub Josh Shapiro, resulting in Trump’s Pennsylvania numbers rising last week. Plus, her clear nod to Palestine and slap at Jews resulted in Trump’s Jewish support jumping from 30% in 2020 to between 46% (Jewish News) and 50% (Sienna) this week. Harris is in a close election, and just put up for grabs the votes of 124,000 Jews in Arizona, 141,000 in Georgia, 119,000 in Michigan, 49,000 in North Carolina, 80,000 in Nevada, 433,000 in Pennsylvania, and 33,000 in Wisconsin.
The RNC needs to remember Lee Atwater’s 1988 demolition of “too liberal” Dukakis (fell from a 17-point August lead to a 7-point November loss), because there are four key issues – climate and energy, immigration, transgenders in girls sports, Hamas rioters in America – where Harris is NOT aligned with 66% of battleground voters. If Trump cannot re-brand Harris-Walz as “radical” Democrats, and focus voters on these four issues, he will lose this election.
Making Sense of the 2024 Election
Democrats and their media allies are touting the Kamala Miracle to excite their core constituents and major donors, and demoralize Republicans – except Harris is not the second coming of Obama. Forget her positive poll numbers, because Trump never held the polling lead Harris seems to have erased. A year ago, Reuters reported that Democrats were “gaming the polls” to ensure “unelectable Trump” was the GOP nominee. Now, with Trump in and Biden out of the race, Democrats can tell the truth.
Which is to say Harris is no shoo-in (see table below). Start with the inexplicable but consistent 6.8 point bounce from Trump’s pre-election “favorability” polls to the GOP’s share of the election’s popular vote in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Of greater importance is the steady rise of Trump’s GOP. Since the anti-Trump-wave elections of 2018, Trump’s October “favorability” has risen from 38.0% to 44.3% (this week), and Republican popular-vote shares have grown from 44.8% to 50%. Based on these trends, Trump should win 51.1% of the popular vote in 2024 (like Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020).
| THE RISE OF TRUMP’S GOP | ||
| Year | October Favorability | November Popular Vote |
| 2018 | 38.0% | 44.8% |
| 2020 | 42.0% | 48.8% |
| 2022 | 43.2% | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 44.3% | ? |
As a final observation, this is an issues election. One. Biden-Harris policies have hovered around 35% voter approval since October 2020, 5 points lower that voter approval for either Harris or Biden (40% since August 2021). Two, Harris (43.9%) and Trump (44.3%) have low “favorability” polling averages. Three, Trump has “a clearer electoral vote path” to victory than Harris (source: CNN’s David Axelrod). Four, Democrats have had four years, and only 24.5% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction. How’s Walz gonna change the situation?