Secretary of Housing Ben Carson (R-MD) believes it is time for black voters to return to the Republican Party, especially in 2020. Democrats laugh this off as wishful thinking, dismissing Dr. Carson as a sell-out Uncle Tom. History supports such liberal group-think, because FDR and LBJ did help black Americans, and – by hearing ad nauseam about welfare mamas – many black voters conflated racism and conservatism. Such thinking is now probably anachronistic.
There is a reason Diamond and Silk, Alveda King, Candace Owens, Star Parker, and Kanye West are no longer Democrats. Fiscal conservatism makes sense: waste and fraud are bad. Cultural conservatism makes sense: no central state can replace their church, family and town. These bedrock Republican beliefs inspired Ken Blackwell, Ben Carson, Nikki Haley, Kay Cole James, and Tim Scott to join the GOP.
2020 could be the tipping point between Democrats and black voters. In November, three polls showed Trump’s black approval in the 30-35% range, and his campaign expects to improve upon the 8% black vote he got in 2016. This is not just wishful thinking. Black wage and employment growth has never been better (source: BLS), and Dems are talking too much about issues (e.g. LGBTQ rights) that don’t interest black voters. In short, a door has opened for the Republican party.
Kanye West believes the paramount need in black communities is to put American families first. Trump is moving in this direction, but needs to focus on three goals: (1) clamping down on illegal immigration that reduces working-class wages, (2) expanding apprenticeships and technical schools that benefit those without college educations, and (3) removing the penalties to marriage in the safety net that invite single-parent (fatherless) homes. It is no secret these issues disproportionately harm black households.
Ben Carson believes Democrats invited economic inequality by packing black families into segregated public housing; thereby denying them economic freedom and upward mobility. The “projects” offered no economic opportunity relative to their skills (and invited the myth blacks don’t want work). It’s hard to Make America Great Again without fixing this structural problem by placing public housing adjacent to economic opportunity zones.
Finally, Republicans need to tap into black cultural conservatism. 33% of black Americans think abortion is wrong under any circumstance. A majority of black voters are Christian and strongly patriotic. Above all, many black Americans hope they will live to see an economically and politically post-racial America. In other words, it is time for situational politics to put an end to identity politics. The guess here is that 25-30% of African-Americans are open to change.