Democrats predicted an all-blue America, based on bifurcated hopes: (1) re-located Californians would “liberate” states like Texas, and (2) Latinos would forever lean “liberal.” On top of this logic, the DNC believed Trump’s populist appeal would be restricted to working-class whites. Nice try, but recent polling and census data don’t support these delusions.
In Rasmussen’s latest survey, 72% of American adults believe 2020 will be “at minimum a good year” (as in worst-case scenario). That number is up from 47% at the end of 2015 and 54% a year ago. Moreover, only 6% think 2020 will be a “poor year.” This explains the latest Zogby poll: Trump’s favorable numbers just hit 50% favorable (48% unfavorable), bringing him into line with Obama in 2012 (50.1%) and 49.5% for Bush in 2004. Digging into the details, I suspect the DNC sees real trouble.
The President’s favorability has improved with demographic groups that eluded him in 2016: 45% of Hispanics, 44% of women, and 42% of independent voters now at least somewhat approve of Trump. In head-to-head polls, Zogby found Trump beating Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren – because millennials (51%) and Generation X (56%) prefer Trump to his likely challengers.
Zogby provides interesting demographic insight. First, Main Street likes Trump: 59% of NASCAR fans, 52% of weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, and 51% of weekly Amazon shoppers view the President favorably. Second, the most vulnerable Americans are warming up to Trump: 52% of those who’ve lost a job, 48% of those with a job that pays less, 47% of those who’ve gone without food for 24 hours, and 46% of those afraid of losing their job now support Trump.
The election math is obvious: (1) his reliable base remains at 40% of the electorate, (2) the political center is less frightened by Trump, (3) tax-paying voters resents the “free stuff” being proposed by Sanders and Warren, and (4) low-income voters see Trump fighting for their jobs and wages. If Trump had Bill Clinton’s personality, his favorable numbers would be closer to 60%.
The Census Bureau’s estimates for 2020 are telling. Americans are moving from blue states (Illinois) to red states (Florida). Blue states like California (minus one) won’t lose electoral votes to red states like Texas (plus two) in 2020, but the election-day dynamics will change. Visualize an hour glass with blue sand (Democrats) remaining above and red sand (Republicans) escaping below. That’s what’s happening.
Illinois will be even more blue than 2016, and Florida will be even more red, because relatively affluent retirees (boomers) comprise the dominant demographic shift. Ask them and they will tell you why they picked sunny Florida and Texas over sunny California: lower state income taxes and affordable housing. And…drum roll, please…older Americans are less liberal and more likely to vote (source: every dad-gummed survey out there).
If not but for the mainstream media, the RNC would feel more confident. But…things can pop up between now and November. Bloomberg could gain momentum as the tweet-free, pro-business guy, or a document could unequivocally prove Trump coerced Ukraine to ruin the Biden campaign. Not likely, but it could happen: ‘cause it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. But get her ready because these Democrats are as likely to beat Trump as he is to lose the combover – – not!