The power of a vice presidential pick is what it says about the presidential candidate. Reagan’s choosing his primary opponent, George H.W. Bush, strengthened the public’s belief that Reagan was a strong, confident leader. By contrast, McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin eroded the public’s confidence in his judgment.
Karl Rove (Wall Street Journal)
If history is any barometer, President Biden will not be re-elected. 61% of voters say his presidency is a “failure” (source: Real Clear Politics). With the exception of Jimmy Carter, he finished his third year as the most unpopular president in 70 years, and he still trails Trump in battleground state polling averages. Making matters worse, he’s running with the most unpopular vice president (by far) in recent history (source: The Hill).
Still, the 2024 election will be close, despite Trump’s lead in the polling averages. Democrats will run on A-B-O-R-T-I-O-N – it’s worked in almost every post-Roe interim election – and Biden currently has a 15-point voter advantage on the issue. In contrast, Trump’s touting his good economy – voters give Maganomics a 22-point advantage over Bidenomics – but that can change in six months. Need I add that this election will be controversial?
Biden can’t read a teleprompter or climb stairs. Trump’s got a “guilty” ruling hanging over his head. Both parties are accepting dark money, racing to harvest ballots, and accusing the other side of destroying democracy. Therefore, Trump’s vice president selection could be a deciding factor. News Items John Ellis put it bluntly: “One of the strongest (implicit) arguments for voting Trump is the possibility that Biden will have a stroke (or be dead) and thus be replaced by Vice President Harris.”
According to Real Clear Politics, Trump’s VP short list – Tulsi Gabbard, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, and J.D. Vance – means the GOP won’t send out two old white dudes to woo millennial, minority, and women voters. The view here is it must be Rubio: 52 years old, 14 years in the Senate, vice-chair of the Intelligence Committee, and recent 16-point victor over a black female Democrat (Rep. Val Demings). A quick look at voting bloc trends in the table above illustrates Rubio’s obvious appeal.
Biden won 57% of women in 2020, and Gabbard could level the playing field. Her social views are moderate. She’s a veteran and great communicator, but can she neutralize Biden-Harris’s abortion advantage? There’s a reason Democrats are putting the issue on ballots in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada – and Trump is polling at 40% with women – so the smart tactical choice is Rubio campaigning in Spanish instead of Gabbard speaking to close-minded abortion voters.
Biden won 55% of the millennial vote in 2020, so 39-year-old Vance makes sense. He has biracial children and speaks fluent MAGA, but Trump invented MAGA and already has 63% support from the white working class. Why introduce a rookie senator to America, when Marco “Prime Time” Rubio won 70% of Florida’s white working class in 2022?
Biden won 91% of the black vote, and Tim Scott is a welcome change to the GOP’s optics, but his presence only invites the “Uncle Tom” questions from Biden’s media allies. There’s just no way Democrats let Tim Scott settle the “race question” for Republicans: in 2022, he won only 16% of South Carolina’s black vote. That’s more than Rubio’s 9% share in Florida, missing Rubio’s appeal entirely. He ran up the score with Catholic (63%), Hispanic (56%), white working class (70%), and women (51%) voters.
Look at the table above to see the Trump-Rubio path to victory. Start with the 2022 exit polls that show Rubio trouncing a Democrat by 1.3 million votes (58% to 41%) in one of America’s largest and most diverse states without needing Florida’s black vote. Today’s GOP reality is two voting blocs – Blacks (14% in 2022) and urban women with college degrees (29% in 2022) – will not vote for Trump and ANY running mate.
The Trump-Rubio base is men (47% of voters), white working class (40%), and Catholics (21%). Their persuadable voters are millennials (23%) and Hispanics (19%). And, just when Trump needs to win Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin, 51% of Midwest voters are white working class, Catholics predominate in New Mexico and Wisconsin, and Hispanics predominate in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. No wonder CNN has Trump up now by 11 points in Nevada, and 5 points in Arizona and Michigan.
Add Rubio, and Trump’s swing-state odds only get better. Pollster Brad Coker says Rubio “checks quite a few boxes – far beyond just the Latino vote – he’s not seen as some sort of Trump acolyte.” The Daily Beast reports that Rubio’s “extremely well-vetted – by Romney in 2012 and the national press in 2016 – never gonna embarrass the nominee [or] make gaffes. He’s a super-good communicator.” Last week, he was swarmed at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago event: “Marco, by far, was the one who had the most attention, mobbed from start to finish” (source: The Financial Times).
Imagine GOP TV commercials with Rubio telling his family’s “exile story” spliced with clips of Arabs in Hamas headbands rioting on Ivy League campuses. Or PTA moms begging school boards to stick to education spliced with clips of of preachy white coeds screaming for “woke” anything. Or Trump blaming Biden for dividing America spliced with clips of Obama dissing white evangelicals who “cling to their religion” and “have antipathy toward immigrants.”
The best reason for picking Rubio is that he’s at peace with the GOP nominee; having run against and lost to Trump in 2016, and then voting to acquit Trump in 2021. That he respects Trump; saying the former president has “brought a lot of people and energy into the Republican Party” and “will win a good portion of the Hispanic vote” and “the vice presidential choice [is] gonna be made by one person and that’s Donald Trump.” At the very least, Mr. Trump needs loyalty.
As Reagan proved by picking former rival Bush, Trump can prove he’s a strong, confident leader by picking Senator Rubio.