He’s in a lot of trouble, but it’s going to get a lot worse. The trends on the economic data are frightening; all the indicators point to extreme pain, and it’s going to be exponential. What we’re feeling right now is just the tip of the iceberg.
Charles Payne (on Biden economy)
Like many conservatives, I look at 91 felony charges, his loser candidates (Kari Lake), strong GOP presidential alternates, and ask how is Donald Trump still around? Then I remember 2016 and realize he knows things. Like he can beat a diluted primary field, frightened voters like him, and he just has to be more popular than Joe Biden. Trump is convinced voters will again opt for the least bad choice.
How Trump wins the general election is simple: independent voters have to fear Biden more than him. Trump knows 70% of voters don’t want either him or Biden to be president, but increasing numbers see him as a “less risky” choice. The Wall Street Journal reports that 73% of voters think Biden is “too old to run for president,” and he is mumbling incoherently into ever-lower favorability (31% in ABC News/Ipsos).
Talk of a third-party option is music to Trump’s ears, but his target is still Biden, whom Morning Consult (see map above) found with more voter disapproval than approval in 40 states. Plus, he’s fallen out of favor in ten 2020 swing states since his inauguration (see table below). Except for North Carolina, Biden won these states in 2020.
| State | Favorability January 2021 | Favorability March 2023 |
| Arizona | 51% | 40% |
| Colorado | 57% | 43% |
| Georgia | 53% | 43% |
| Michigan | 52% | 41% |
| Minnesota | 54% | 43% |
| Nevada | 52% | 41% |
| North Carolina | 50% | 39% |
| Pennsylvania | 52% | 41% |
| Virginia | 56% | 44% |
| Wisconsin | 51% | 42% |
Biden’s fall began right after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, and continued through Labor Day, when Schoen Cooperman Research found him underwater on key swing-state issues: inflation (-41), immigration (-21), and crime (-17). Even Democrat pollsters found most voters oppose Biden’s “woke” positions on immigration (76%), transgenders (74%), and energy and climate (71%).
Biden’s cultural extremism is one reason why 26% of Blacks, 50% of Latinos, and 47% of Asians disapprove of Biden’s presidency (source: The New York Times). Better to have the devil you know, if he’ll close the “open” Mexican border and stop “smash and loot” mobs. And, nobody thinks Trump will staff the White House with “woke” outliers who can’t define “woman” or admit America’s founding was in 1776.
Trump knows he lost 70% of the non-white vote in 2020, BUT only 53% of non-whites support Biden today, because 54% of Blacks, 57% of Hispanics, and 63% of Asians think America is on the wrong track (source: Siena College poll). And, the Biden-Trump character debate airing on MSNBC and Fox News? Non-whites think Biden’s “Hunter” scam is just as bad as Trump’s “January 6” scam.
Country-club Republicans need to see patriotism and populism through the eyes of the black policeman (who’s dealing with illegal aliens), Latino carpenter (whose kids are stuck in bad public schools), Asian shopkeeper (who’s been looted by rob-and-run thugs), and white truck driver (who’s seen diesel prices climb from $2.55 to $4.49 per gallon). Thanks to Biden, the promise to “make America great again” resonates with these voters far more now than in 2016.
If COVID killed Trump in 2020, a recession will kill Biden in 2024. His bravado can’t hide the downward revisions of June and July’s new-jobs numbers, or that the Conference Board’s leading indicator fell for the 16th month in a row. CNBC reports 63% of employees can’t “cover a $500 emergency expense” and hardship withdrawals are up. Fox Business’s Charles Payne nailed it: “All the free, steady money is gone and Americans just aren’t prepared for it.”
Don’t hand the GOP nomination to Trump just yet; despite a crowded field, his support is only 33% in Iowa, 31% in Wisconsin, and 27% in Utah. The Real Clear Politics average has him 38 points ahead of his nearest challenger, but he’s only 7 points ahead of the field. He’s yet to discuss January 6 with Mike Pence and Chris Christie on the same stage. DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy offer MAGA with brains and no felony charges.
Still, there’s a reason oddsmakers give Trump a 71.4% chance of being the Republican nominee. In a too-crowded (again) Republican field, he’s the brand everyone knows. Not a single national poll has him trailing his GOP rivals. And, the more liberal media opine and report him at his worst, the more his flaws become white noise to voters who’ve soured on Biden. And, that’s how Trump prevails.
Trump’s detractors say he looks like Tarzan now, but will run like Jane later, because a whopping 63% of all voters said they “definitely or probably wouldn’t vote for Trump” in the general election. Even worse, his poll support looks odd. Un-registered voters favor him over Biden by 13 points, but by only a point over a 3rd-party option. Registered voters unlikely to vote favor him over Biden by 19 points, but just 5 points over a 3rd-party option (source: AP/NORC).
If he’s polling well with citizens who cannot or will not vote, and the anti-Trump voting bloc is massive, then he can’t be ruled in now any more than he could be ruled out in 2016. Politico scoffs that his loyalists are only 28% of the GOP, but he’s still the most consequential politician of the 21st century, and here is why: T-R-U-M-P is an enigma the political cognoscenti can’t crack. Hate him if you will, but don’t sleep on his candidacy.