Recent events suggest the impeachment inquiries are underwhelming the electorate. In this week’s Politico-Morning Consult poll, public support for impeachment fell to 47%, and more Americans (56% to be exact) believe the President will be re-elected. This is bad news for Democrats, especially since Politico is a liberal news outlet. What’s going on out there?
I suspect Democrats erred with Trump-Ukraine, starting with making the face of impeachment Adam Schiff, of whom many Americans are tired. It’s even possible the quid pro quo angle was a mistake, because diplomacy is impossible without quid pro quo. In fact, it’s presidential malpractice to give US aid (quid) without something (quo) in return. The average voter is tired of Trump-Ukraine, having accepted long ago that Trump would break a few rules.
Conservatives certainly see the double standard. If Trump can tear up Obama’s Paris Accord and Iran Nuclear Treaty by executive order, why can’t he order an investigation into what Obama apparatchiks did in 2016? If a former VP can brag that his Ukrainian quid pro quo qualifies him to be a tough-talking president, why can’t a sitting president apply the screws? After all, it’s not like the Ukraine is an ally like England or the Bidens are above suspicion.
Absent the Nixon Tapes, congressional Republicans believe Trump-Ukraine is Trump-Russia redux: Democrats (Schiff) tipping the scales, leaked opinions from interested parties (Yovanovitch), and Trump seeking public exoneration (e.g. asking Barr to weigh in). In fairness to the President, there was at best an implied quid pro quo when a “high crime” requires an explicit quid pro quo in Republican minds. Therefore, this is a political matter to be decided by the 2020 election – where it belongs.
Don’t read too much into the “national” polls, because 51 individual state elections will apportion electoral votes. New York and California might inflate the Democrat’s popular vote in a lost cause, as was the case in 2016. Further, negative media coverage and Trump’s rhetoric have held his national numbers below 50%, but that same bias and rhetoric also fires up his base.
Since 2004, 22 states have always voted Republican, and 16 states have always voted Democrat, leaving 12 “swing” states that decided who would become president. It’s no surprise New York Times polling found 53% oppose impeachment in Hillary Clinton’s blue firewall (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI), which all voted for Trump. There is a simple explanation: Trump spoke to the voter’s situation and not his/her identity.
After almost three years, Democrats and reporters have credibly raised questions about Mr. Trump’s professionalism and views on race, but Trump’s “deplorable” identity matters less in swing states than gainful employment, access to low-interest loans, trade deals tilting America’s way, and no more regime-change wars. His electability is a love-hate affair.
Trump might be no Ronald Reagan, but do suburban moderates like the aging socialist (Sanders), do older black women trust the woman who got ahead by faking minority status (Warren), and do working-class voters believe Biden’s son earned his “good fortune” in China and Ukraine? These are real concerns and why Trump holds rallies in swing states to hammer home his message.
Inevitably, Trump talks about the economy (jobs), illegal immigration (crime), the constitution (guns), and the resistance (advantaged elites). New York elites can condemn him for dope-slapping foes and CNN can fact-check his exaggerations, but crowds still fill huge arenas to laugh at Sleepy Joe Biden and boo Shifty Adam Schiff. Politics aside, Trump knows how to surprise and delight everyday people to his advantage.
Most of Trump’s foibles are real, so his electability depends on two things. First and foremost, current economic conditions must continue. Second, Michael Bloomberg cannot win the Democratic nomination. Whatever, but Forgotten Americans still don’t trust the Washington elites who ignored their situation – which is why they flock to Trump rallies and boo CNN.