If I had a dime for every “expert” poll predicting Trump’s 2020 defeat, I’d be a billionaire. But, like Chinese water torture, they torment my mind (the mere thought of President Sanders is terrifying). On Thursday, the real torture began: a debate in which only moderates Biden and Klobuchar did not lie or defend socialist policies.
I suspect today’s “experts” predicted a big Clinton win in 2016, and bias is still a problem. They so want Trump to lose, just because he does not hold to party orthodoxy, respect the press, or act presidential. And, once again, they ignore what the average voter wants in a president: the least risky person. Here’s how Trump wins four more years.
Trump is unorthodox, but most of the Democratic field are political heretics. With the exception of Biden and Klobuchar, the DNC is offering swing voters children (Wang) and socialists (Warren). Trump has 25% of the electorate in the bag (hard-core Republicans) and no chance with 21% (hard-core Democrats). This leaves 54% in the middle (made up of independent voters and centrist Democrats and Republicans).
These swing voters just saw Thursday’s debate that showcased risky choices. Wang wants to force Americans out of their beachfront homes. O’Rourke wants to pay minorities reparations. Sanders wants to force 150 million out of private health insurance. Warren wants to raise taxes on companies where we work or in which we invest. Trump’s wall is an act of moderation in comparison to these straw-house disasters in waiting.
Trump has defeated the “liberal” press. With 30% approval, the media has lost its sway over swing voters. CNN hired John Leaking Brennan and Andrew Lying McCabe; so, I’m betting Trump’s inaugural-crowd lie is more pardonable than the Russian-collusion lie. In fact, there’s a growing cottage industry in exposing the mainstream media’s false claims; such as CNN’s recent report linking Trump rallies to hate crimes.
Harvard researchers, Matthew Lilly and Brian Wheaton, used the same methodology of the “study” that determined Trump rallies fomented hate incidents in the host counties – and “proved” Clinton rallies increased hate incidents even more. Turns out rallies are held in populous counties with higher raw numbers of crime. Duh – Orange County (CA) had more Trump rallies (2) and hate crimes (5) than Orange County (IN), which had zero.
Trump’s “un-presidential” personality is not a liability. These Democrats are hardly presidential timber. Maybe Trump bends the truth, but Elizabeth Pocahontas Warren couldn’t admit her healthcare plan requires higher payroll taxes. Trump might be insensitive, but Julian Castro was cruel in memory-shaming Joe Biden. On the subject of age, Bernie Sanders appeared on the verge of a stroke.
If Trump’s unhinged, then Kamala Harris is stoned; ordering the President to “go back to Fox News” and comparing him to the “really small dude” behind the curtain in the Wizard Of Oz. Trump might be a huckster, but Andrew Yang did open with an offer of “free gift with purchase.” Booker and Klobuchar? No wonder congressional Democrats have a 22% approval rating. Trump can’t wait to re-brand the nominee as the greater risk.
It’s the economy, stupid. Clinton and Obama won because minorities and working-class whites were hurting, but that was then. For the first time in US history, more minorities than whites are now entering the workforce. Of the 5.2 million new jobs since 2016, 4.5 million (86%) went to minorities, and hourly workers are enjoying faster income growth than their bosses.
Healthcare will be the “economic” battle in 2020, and 63% of voters oppose Sanders/Warren Medicare-for-all. 58% oppose any plan that ends private insurance options, and 63% oppose any plan that raises their taxes. Voters (of all races) “feel” their economic situation, and I bet the dignity of a good job and choosing one’s own doctor “feels” better than the indignity of the worst interpretation of what Trump says.
Don’t underestimate the incumbent’s advantage. Democrats have no Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama in 2020. Biden and Klobuchar both lack the star power to steal the spotlight from President Trump. They don’t get the “brand thing” that turns even negative coverage into higher Trump brand awareness. Democrats and their media allies still believe his low “approval” ratings matter. Wrong!
Trump’s 2019 approval has not dropped below 43%, which is where Obama was in 2011. Voting for president is a binary decision, and neither candidate in 2020 will enjoy 100% approval by swing voters, whose vote will be based on how they “feel” about their situation and why one choice is less risky: no different than midnight shoppers, who don’t “approve” of Walmart, but feel it is less risky than pulling into the all-night convenience store.
A year out, there are certain known knowns about President Trump. As the incumbent, his government and rallies ARE the news. He knows how to fire up his base and re-direct critical news to a controversy of his choosing. In spite of non-stop charges of treason and racism, his 2019 approval has run from 43% to 52%. His re-election turns on the Trump economy. Will it hold?