Because the anti-Trump media’s not part of the solution, it’s wishing and hoping to Make America Slump Again. It’s not a good look for Democrats to talk up a recession in hopes the Trump economy turns south, and it’s embarrassing for so-called experts to predict a recession when the data is inconclusive. I view these subjective predictions as the work of partisan fools; because it is reckless to spook investors and CEOs, who rely on “trusted” sources.
It begs the question: isn’t it kamikaze journalism to root for a recession that leads to more down-sizing at one’s media company? You bet it is, and only intelligent yet idiotic (IYI) journalists would wish ill will toward their fellow Americans for partisan purposes. This calls the pundit’s integrity into question, because no intellectually honest person would rather make a fleeting political point than retire with a comfortable nest egg.
It was IYI journalism when media pundits wrote about the 2016 populists, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Both candidates decried working folk’s wages and blamed corporate outsourcing, but Trump and his fair-trade position got pounded. Meanwhile, Sanders and his socialist agenda got off easy. No serious and intelligent business writer would ever take Sanders seriously.
When Sanders wasn’t proposing higher corporate taxes or $15-per-hour minimum wages, he was yammering about eliminating fossil fuels. Ahem – he would quickly raise business costs in a global economy; thereby crashing markets, stalling businesses, and hurting working-class Americans. That’s economic malpractice that should be the target of recession criers.
It was also IYI reporting to down-play the economic mess (lowest GDP growth since George Washington) Obama left, and then report it as a nascent recovery that “lucky” Trump inherited. Obama’s economic metrics were bad, he did not launch the recovery, and the electorate was wise to him. Even though Obama campaigned hard against Trump in 2016, the battleground states (FL, MI, NC, OH, PA and WI) sent him an “election message” by electing Trump. It’s your rotten economy, stupid!
Four IYI pundits come to mind, beginning with the New York Times Paul Krugman and USA Today’s Matt Krantz, who both predicted in 2016 Trump’s election would trigger a global recession (with “no end” per Krugman). In 2018, Quinn Hillyer (Washington Examiner) and Evan Kraft (American University) claimed tariffs would trigger an eminent recession. Kraft even advised his readers to sell stocks, buy gold, and provision canned goods.
Not to be out-dumbed, the Washington Post reported in August 75 percent of all economists predict a recession by the end of 2021, while also noting the odds of a recession this year fell to 2 percent (down from 10% in February). In other words, the odds of a 2019 recession declined and the odds of a distant recession increased. Wow – you really have to hand it to those economists. That’s IYI mumbo-jumbo of the highest order.
Wait a minute. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellin doesn’t “foresee a recession” before the 2020 election. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reported the G7 meetings were abuzz about the US economy, because it is expanding, creating jobs, and growing wages at the fastest pace in ten years. He did acknowledge uncertainty over China trade, but said the US is “close to a major (trade) announcement with Japan [and We] expect to have the USMCA passed in the next month or two.”
Here’s my advice: ignore the IYI business writers, because they see positive economic data and predict doom. They know China cheats on trade and blame the US president. They know why tariffs are being applied and smear Trump in stead of exhibiting one iota of patriotic support. With friends like that, who needs Russians to meddle in the 2020 election?