I used to think Donald Trump would be a one-term president because average voters could not tolerate the emotional intensity of his change presidency. I thought he would build a wall, cut taxes and regulations, re-work some trade deals, and ride off like the Lone Ranger (mission accomplished). Now, after the Democratic field has ballooned to twenty-one – they keep climbing out of the clown car – I am not so sure. In contrast to President Trump, their collective branding message is un-convincing.
Love Trump or hate him, he is positioning himself as the least risky choice in 2020. His consistent branding message is delivered at every rally: telling voters what he is (the job-creating and citizen-protecting incumbent) and what he is not (a tax-increasing and big-government question mark). Meanwhile, Trump’s opponents are busy promoting policies average voters don’t even want (e.g. reparations for African-Americans) or virtue-signaling at the expense of “privileged” identity groups.
IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID – Right now, 56 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy (source: CNN). Under Trump, the unemployment rate has fallen to a 50-year low (3.6 percent), while GDP is growing at 3.2 percent. Meanwhile, Democrats and their media allies bumble on about make-believe problems, such as Joe Biden saying, “we have to rethink how we define what constitutes a successful economy” or that New York Times party-pooper, Paul Krugman, bemoaning the “brief and rapidly fading sugar high” of tax cuts giving way to an economic slump. Buh-Duh!
The entire field of “old school” Democrats supports an hourly minimum wage of $15.00 – even when today’s average hourly minimum wage is $27.77 and only 542,000 workers earn exactly the current federal minimum ($7.25). In fact, wages are growing at 3.2 percent annually because there are more job openings (7.1 million) than un-employed workers (5.8 million). With an inflation rate of 1.8 percent, the US is re-entering an era of high wage growth without inflation, such as we enjoyed under Bill Clinton. Crazy Conspiracy Theory: cheating husbands in the White House create economic booms.
Each Democratic hopeful wants to repeal the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Plus, Elizabeth Warren wants a “wealth tax” on assets…Bernie Sanders wants a “wealthy” estate tax…Kamala Harris wants a “large financial institution” tax to subsidize families…Cory Booker wants a “capital gains tax” to subsidize “every American child.” This is true, and no Democrat – ZERO – has put forth an alternate economic plan, other than to support AOC’s Green New Deal in which Americans who refuse to work get paid.
TRUMP IS NOT A TRAITOR – The average voter has moved on from Trump-Russia collusion. This is true, and the Trump camp has upgraded to the Russiagate 20.02.01 operating system, which will prove the deep state used “the criminal justice system process as a political weapon” (source: Attorney General William Barr). Meanwhile, Democrats are using the Russiagate 20.17.01 operating system, which clings to partisan mythology and risks alienating independent voters in 2020.
This is a ticking time bomb for Democrats: the equivalent of Gerald Ford campaigning with the stench of Watergate on his breath. The attorney general has twice now told Senate Democrats the full investigative powers of the federal government are looking for evidence of Obama-era apparatchiks spying, leaking and lying. Since only 35% of likely voters now believe Trump colluded with Russians (source: The Hill), how will they react to hard evidence of anti-Trump election tampering?
In spite of Democrats and their media allies talking up “obstruction” and talking down the attorney general, they face embarrassment and criminal prosecutions between now and November 2020. Obama-era officials did spy on the Trump campaign. A money trail does link the DNC to Russians through Fusion GPS. The deep state did leak classified information to aid-and-abet media allies. Those are the facts and they are undisputed.
DEMOCRATS KEEP SAYING STUPID SH*T – Trump’s greatest political liability with swing voters are his off-the-cuff comments and tweets. Yet, his Democratic opponents match him gaffe for gaffe. Campaigning in Iowa, Biden bragged about meeting “virtually every major world leader” before suggesting China could not compete with the US because “they can’t even figure out how they are going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system…they’re not bad folks…they’re not competition for us.” Someone send Biden a copy of Factory Man because Chinese “corruption” is how China competes.
This is bad for the party, because Biden is the centrist front runner! Elizabeth Warren cannot outrun her stupid DNA-test-results video and the angry Cherokee nation, and Andrew Yang cannot disavow his dumb UBI (universal basic income) tweet promising every American $1,000 monthly with no means test or work requirement. Pete Buttigieg opened his campaign with a delusional promise to eliminate the electoral college (no way) and Beto O’Rourke is stuck with his hallucinogenic $5 trillion climate-change plan. Woo-hoo!
It is, however, Democratic majority-shaming that most threatens their chances, because the average voter makes his or her presidential choice in private. Christians are 48% more likely to vote than non-Christians; so, how will that majority (173 million) react to a liberal’s attack on their “traditional” values as anti-gay and anti-women? Whites are 30% more likely to vote than Latinos; so, how will that majority (197 million) react to a liberal’s suggestion their support for legal immigration is racist? These are real questions that should give pause to Democratic anti-majoritarian campaign rhetoric.
Will Trump win in 2020? Hard to say, but his arrow is pointing up, especially if he gets a trade deal with China. If the inspector general, FBI and DOJ produce hard evidence of Obama-era abuse, and bring criminal prosecutions against prominent anti-Trump figures (such as James Comey), then I like Trump’s chances going away. Right now, Democrats are sitting on a timebomb..tick-tick-tick