There is a new generation of GOP populists, who cannot be dismissed as dumb hicks. Florida governor DeSantis (Harvard-Yale), Missouri senator Hawley (Stanford-Yale), Ohio senator-elect Vance (Yale), and New York representative Stefanik (Harvard) look like the future of the party, so Hawley’s take on this year’s election under-performance is worth reading.
Hawley blames GOP leadership (“Washington Republicanism”) for a horrible mid-term message he describes as generalized gripes about Democrats and Biden with no actionable alternative. “Republicans just said, ‘Well, the other side sucks, and Biden sucks.’ No doubt, but it’s pretty hard to convince folks, particularly independent-minded ones who don’t tend to trust the process much, to vote for you, if you don’t have something affirmative to say and offer. I lay that at the feet of the Washington establishment that set the tone for these races. They failed to offer that kind of vision.”
Not in Mitt Romney’s WSJ op-ed urging the GOP to get serious about excessive spending (citing “non-discretionary spending on Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid”) or in Rick Scott’s 11-Point Plan to Rescue America that proposed a sunset on all federal programs without a caveat to spare Social Security and Medicare. Hawley calls that strategy a “serious mistake” that caused “Obama-Trump voters” to stay home.
He’s right to call out messages that invited voters to think “I just don’t trust either of you guys” to fix things, rightly citing the GOP triumph in Florida: “The DeSantis campaign was about something.”
Back to Romney’s and Scott’s comments about Medicare and Social Security. When asked, even House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy did not rule out such changes, allowing President Biden to credibly stoke voter fears that a GOP Congress would cut these popular entitlements. This is why the Obama-Trump voters stayed home (exit polls found Independents broke 49-47 for House Democrats). No wonder Hawley’s angry.
“I don’t understand why in the world Republicans would say ‘Oh, yeah, let’s first when we get back to the majority, let’s go fiddle with those programs that you’ve paid into, and that you are going to depend on for your livelihood in retirement.’ I think it’s nuts.” He wanted to “address the felt concerns of voters who are struggling economically, struggling with rising prices, have paid into those systems with their wages their entire working lives.”
Hawley thinks McConnell banked too much on voter resentment of a hapless president and high gasoline and food prices. He’s right, after Trump 2020 (no party platform) handed Democrats the Senate, and McConnell told the press “this midterm election will be a report card on the performance of this entire Democratic government: the president, the House and the Senate.” It’s still early, but Hawley’s autopsy is as good any.
He thinks McCarthy and McConnell did not fight hard enough against laws that “take away the 2nd Amendment rights of law-abiding citizens in the form of the big gun control bill, [and spent] billions and billions of dollars of taxpayer money on climate initiatives that was billed as infrastructure.” He wanted them to “oppose the Biden agenda more effectively AND actually offer an alternative.”
He faults McConnell for providing no “agenda to run on in these midterms” and then questioning the “candidate quality” of Trump-backed Republicans, who lost close races. Hawley says it was wrong to “bad-mouth our candidates in the middle of the campaign [and] leave Blake Masters for dead in Arizona.” It WAS wrong of McConnell to hold back funds from candidates who would not pledge to renew his leadership.
Especially when those candidates were supported by the RNC and House Caucus chairs (McDaniel and Stefanik). Mitch was quick to rip Trump’s loyalty tests. Talk about hypocrisy!
Hawley says GOP House candidates flipped Democrat seats in Florida and New York because DeSantis’ and Zeldin’s campaigns were “about something” other than resentment, but “that was not the case nationwide.” Right now, the GOP might control the House (212 wins and still leading in 9 races) but can do no better than a 50-50 Senate, where Hawley could oppose McConnell for Minority leader.
Suffice it to note Hawley wants a more-populist agenda: “tougher tariffs on China, re-shoring American jobs, opening up American energy full throttle, and putting 100,000 new cops on the street.” According to their campaign web sites, that’s what DeSantis, Stefanik, and Vance also want. The election data suggests a change in GOP leadership is probable.
At week’s end, House Republicans were projected to win the popular vote; up by 6.4 points and 6.1 million votes (source: Cook Political Report). AP/NORC and NEP exit polls found 2018 voting blocs left Democrats in 2022; down 21 points with Latino men, 14 with Latina women, 11 with black men, 8 with white women, 7 with black women, and 6 in the suburbs (source: CNN). That’s all the proof one needs to question Republican leadership (including Trump). It’s a fact Democrats eked out races their polling said they’d lose. NFL coaches get fired for less bungling.
This is a time for a little Reagan optimism (especially if the GOP can flip the House) and it’s time for a new generation to mold Republicanism. That’s Ron DeSantis (age 44) fighting wokeness, Elise Stefanik (age 38) recruiting diverse candidates, Josh Hawley (age 42) asking tough questions, Glenn Youngkin (age 55) winning Trump voters, and Chris Sununu (age 48) winning big in New England.
I’m all in, especially with Biden in the White House, because I’m tired of my party being ruined by petty tyrants like Trump and McConnell. Let the party’s future begin today!