This post should have been a high-five recap of a deserved Red Wave, but for the lingering Trump hangover. Right now, the GOP has 25 governors (3 pending), 49 senators (3 pending), and 206 reps (47 pending). Not exactly a red wave, except in Florida, where Gov. DeSantis earned a shot at the 2024 presidential nomination. Still, if Republicans can limp into House and Senate majorities by Christmas, the midterms bode well for the party. Heck, Manchin might even switch parties.
The Good
Despite the split decision on my GOP diversity tracker (3 losses, 3 wins), exits polls show Democrats dropping 7 points with black women, 11 points with black men, 14 points with Latina women, and 21 points with Latino men (source: CNN). This is BIG WIN #1 for Republicans; confirming the antidote to identity politics and boosting the stature of GOP leaders McCarthy, McDaniel and Stefanik, who are re-building the party the right way.
The Wall Street Journal was correct that Democrats were alienating suburban white women; exit polls found a 6-point drop with suburban voters and an 8-point drop with white women voters (source: CNN). This is BIG WIN #2 for Republicans, confirming Governor Youngkin’s (R-VA) 2021 winning strategy as the right path (neither hug nor hate Trump) to retake the suburbs in 2024.
The Hispanic shift to the GOP is now undeniable. Exit polls found Democrats dropped about 17 points with Latino voters nationwide since the 2018 mid-terms (source: CNN). This is BIG WIN #3, and nowhere was this more evident than Florida, where Gov. DeSantis won 65% of the vote in majority Hispanic precincts (source: Miami Herald). He also won Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties and a 1.5 million victory margin. His GOP juggernaut helped Sen. Rubio win by 1.2 million votes, and helped win 20 of 28 seats in the US House.
The big surprise (to me) was the relative weakness of statewide wins by Democrats. In 32 gubernatorial races, Republicans won on average 61.2% of the vote, and Democrats won just 53.7%. In 30 senate races, Republicans won on average 61.7% of the vote, and Democrats won just 58.4%. In 6 pending gubernatorial and senate contests, four include incumbent Democrats. In other words, Biden and his party are not all that!
The Bad
The Biden economy was not bad enough for promising Republicans Fung (RI-2) and Leavitt (NH-1) to flip two blue House precincts in New England. Dems narrowly prevailed, because they define “bad economy” as high unemployment – and a 3.7% jobless rate is NOT painful enough to a coalition of abortion, climate, and identity activists. Remember, President Carter (D) lost because the jobless rate was 7.5% in 1980.
There is no better cure than the tincture of time, and more time is obviously needed for the Americans who hear “MAGA” and fear the worst. Credit the DNC for knowing its base and the effectiveness of the “mega-MAGA” dog whistle. This is why the big upsets (NH senator and NY governor) didn’t happen. Governor Hochul (D-NY) won because New York City created fly-over America. Senator Hassan (D-NH) won because her rival was a Trump-loving former brigadier general (Bolduc).
Lessons Learned
No matter how the gubernatorial, House, and Senate races end now, the GOP challenge for 2024 is crystal clear. Prevent negative secondary meanings (e.g. “semi-fascism”) to the “America First” and “Families First” messages. To this end, the messenger is all-important, which is why a savvy candidate (Zeldin) was competitive against all odds, and a newbie candidate (Bolduc) cost the GOP an easy pick-up.
This is why conservatives should appreciate how winning governors Abbot (54.9%), DeSantis (59.3%), and Kemp (53.4%) performed.
- Abbot (R-TX) trounced Beto O’Rourke (and the outside money)
- DeSantis (R-FL) turned Florida super red
- Kemp (R-GA) won so big Stacey Abrams had to “concede” defeat
Despite Democrats playing the “mega-MAGA” card, these GOP leaders – plus DeWine (OH), Reynolds (IA), Stitt (OK), and Sununu (NH) – proved “normie voters” like conservative policies, especially without the tweets. If the RNC and its donor base don’t learn from their great governors, they are fools.
Conservative bias is obviously at home here, so it’s OK to feel disappointment that Biden didn’t get a shellacking Tuesday. An important reality check was provided by Karl Rove; the GOP ousted many “vulnerable” House Democrats in 2020, and only 14 Dem senators had to defend their seats this year. That number jumps to 23 in 2024. So, it’s not over. In fact, there’s reason for optimism.