Checking in on the Senate

As a result of the stroke, he has a hard time understanding what he’s hearing – problems with speech. In some of the small talk prior to the interview, it wasn’t clear he understood what I was saying. I sat down with him in May before the stroke. This was very different.

NBC’s Dasha Burns (on Democrat John Fetterman)

Tell me again, which party’s senate candidates are not ready for prime time? Because I’m convinced the GOP will add two senate seats on Election Day.

Democrats wanted voters to reject Herschel Walker because he could not process like the brilliant Pete Buttigieg. Now they want voters to reject ableism and ignore the processing problems of senate hopeful John Fetterman (D-PA); whose wife trashed Dasha Burns (see quote up top), rather than release his medical records. Voters won’t tell pollsters his post-stroke struggles are a problem, but the guess here is they will in the privacy of the voting booth.

Val Demings (D-FL) supports abortion until the fetus can survive outside the womb. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) denounced America’s police on a Kremlin-funded network. Both are now sinking like stones in the polls because they are extreme – or maybe it’s the economy and Biden Democrats’ denialism. It’s not looking good for Democrats because voters think they care more about social issues than higher prices and interest rates.

Biden hurts his party by trying to obfuscate voters’ declining standard of living, especially after this week’s inflation numbers – the last voters will see before November – show things getting worse. The Producer Price Index rose 0.4% from August and 8.5% from 2021. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from August and 8.2% from a year ago. Core inflation hit a 40-year-high, up 0.6% from August and 6.6% over last year.

There are four incumbent vote-with-Biden newbies that their own party admits are “vulnerable” in this year’s senate races. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) have served just one term, and neither got more than 48% of the vote in 2016. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Ralph Warnock (D-GA) have served just two years, and neither got more than 51% in 2020. This year, Trump’s not on the ballot and their states have new election-integrity laws.

That last nugget is big, because Reuters reports, “Senate Democrats cite insufficient election workers ahead of midterms. Their letter cited states such as Texas have been forced to close polling stations due to a lack of staff.” If Americans won’t drive a truck for $340-a-day, why would they work for $120-a-day in New York’s election? Democrat trillions caused the Great Resignation and “insufficient workers” in remote polling places. A big worry, especially because GOP-leaning precincts don’t expect this problem.

Look at the Senate map above, showing the GOP holding their seats and flipping Arizona and Nevada. If a red wave election (that I foresee) happens in November, Democrats will also lose Georgia, New Hampshire and Washington. That’s 55 Republicans – a Romney-proof majority – holding the procedural reins to ensure incriminating evidence against the worst of Biden’s administration enters the public square.

Did you know bookmakers have installed the GOP as 2-seat favorites in the Senate? This is true, because they see momentum akin to what took place in Virginia in the lead-up to November 2021. This (shift away from Democrats) is reflected in the table below. The columns read from left to right; state, Real Clear Politics polling average, current Real Clear Politics prediction, latest credible poll, and my prediction.

Forget party operatives inside the press that still claim Patty Murray (D-WA) is a “shoo-in” and Marco Rubio (R-FL) is “tied,” because that does not square with data from the Cook Political Report or Real Clear Politics. Murray’s lead has narrowed, Rubio’s has widened, and that’s why bookmakers have flipped. Further, not all liberals deny GOP momentum or the possibility of a “wave election” in November. Three items caught my eye.

Politico reports that “Democrats retrench as GOP money floods the map. Those involved [say] the decision was driven by a relative lack of resources: As Republicans’ biggest House super PAC floods the election with hundreds of millions of dollars, their Democratic counterparts have lagged far behind.” 

NPR reports “the landscape for control of the Senate is shifting again – back in Republicans’ direction because of a natural tightening as races come into focus for more people [and] a deluge of television advertising in key races supporting GOP candidates. The field of [seats] most likely to flip continues – with Republicans making a real push in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.”

Clinton-advisor Mark Penn claims the latest polls show “issue voters” are tipping the scales to GOP candidates. “We’re getting closer to a wave election as these polls edge up. There are hundreds of millions being spent [on] voters who just vote on these issues regardless who the candidates are. That’s what happens if there’s a wave.” Translation: who cares if Dr. Oz is kinda-sorta odd, as long as he is for law and order.

This wraps up the series of pre-election articles with data that portend well for Republicans. Still, there’s something much greater at work. It’s what Ron DeSantis observed in the spring: People are tired of this crap! My career kept me in fly-over America and forced me to get middling Americans – of every race and religion – to “yes” every day. Trust me: most of them see what you see and feel how you feel.

Call it a hunch, if you must, but many millions can’t wait to express on their ballot what they cannot say at work or in a PTA meeting. They know what the problems are (crime rising in Baltimore) and the rash reasons (rid the world of racists) Democrats give to justify the problem. This pent-up anger spans a host of issues, which is why 75% of Americans are now unhappy with America’s direction (source: NBC News).

Republicans will ride THAT into control of the Senate.