Right now, I expect the number of Republican governors to increase from 28 to 32 on Election Day. Details to follow, but my prediction is based on current polling averages, recent voter sentiment surveys, and today’s economic reality. If anything, the GOP might even add two more governorships.
How We Got Here
Start with the polls and liberal media that are now actually bullish on the GOP. Kellyanne Conway, the architect of Trump’s 2016 upset victory, is a credible judge of polls. She calls them “fundamentally flawed” and “biased against people on the right,” because most polling firms do fail to “deeply examine” the MAGA voters they “deeply disdain.” Thus, where the polls show close gubernatorial races, Conway sees probable GOP wins.
Of even greater weight is the frail leadership of Democrat Joe Biden, because his hapless presidency is now the warning label for all Democrat executives; a stark contrast to Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor and the new gold standard in competent governing. Republicans couldn’t have asked for better video footage than the young Ron DeSantis leading the old Joe Biden through Florida’s post-hurricane wreckage.
The image of DeSantis standing behind the presidential seal will be aired a lot between now and Election Day – as will the Biden sound bite: “What the governor’s done is pretty remarkable. I think he’s done a good job.” Now, add in images of the US president begging for more Saudi oil production – and their answer this week (production cuts). Biden’s put the bad breath on all Democrats.
The State of the Elections
Real Clear Politics now predicts four Republican flips (KS, NV, OR, WI), because every governors race now looks like Florida, where DeSantis has surged to a 7-point lead over Crist. A similar surge is happening across the country, where Democrats concede there are 11 “losable” gubernatorial races (AZ, FL, GA, KS, MN, NM, NV, OR, PA, TX, WI) out of 36 total.
The table below is a prognosis of those 11 battleground states. The columns are (left to right) state, RCP polling average, current RCP status, latest poll, and TCG prediction.
| State | RCP AVE | RCP Status | Latest Poll | TCG Call |
| AZ | R + 1 | GOP Lean | R + 4 | GOP Hold |
| FL | R + 7 | GOP Lean | R + 11 | GOP Hold |
| GA | R + 7 | GOP Lean | R + 11 | GOP Hold |
| KS | D + 2 | Toss Up | R + 2 | GOP Add |
| MN | D + 6 | DEM Lean | D + 3 | Toss Up |
| NM | D + 6 | DEM Lean | D + 3 | DEM Hold |
| NV | R + 2 | GOP Lean | R + 3 | GOP Add |
| OR | R + 3 | GOP Lean | R + 3 | GOP Add |
| PA | D + 10 | Toss Up | D + 2 | Toss Up |
| TX | R + 9 | GOP Lean | R + 11 | GOP Hold |
| WI | R + 1 | GOP Lean | R + 3 | GOP Add |
Before you dismiss on grounds of this site’s conservative bias, consider two bits of breaking news. One, almost all legacy media now report these races as leaning Republican or recently tightened; an about face from August. Two, “73% of conservative Latinos prefer Republicans in control, versus 17% who prefer Democrats” – up from 40% ten years ago (source: NBC News).
This last item is important, because Hispanics are over 25% of the population in half these states – and Democrats are blowing it. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs (D) skipped a town hall event hosted by Spanish-language media Wednesday, while Kari Lake (R) not only came to the event but was a hit with the crowd. This – right after CNN reported President Biden is hemorrhaging support with black voters; down to 64%. If that remains their share of black votes at the polls in November, Democrats will lose a lot more than 36 governorships.
What’s Going On?
Voters, especially non-whites, have stopped caring about social-justice issues (abortion) and started worrying about their standard of living. After Dobbs, most news outlets began talking up Democrat enthusiasm and the economy – until September, when the wheels fell off the economy.
CPI spiked in August, triggering a big rate hike by the Fed in September. Petrol prices went up, and previous GDP rates were revised downward. When September closed with a bear market, voters forgot George Floyd and remembered that one George Washington they had left after eating at McDonalds. What a difference a month makes. Household finances have become worrisome, and voters are blaming the folks with single-party control of Washington.
Over on the right, Republican governors were the grown-ups in the room. Georgia’s Brian Kemp stood up to “denier” Trump. Florida’s Ron DeSantis stood up to “woke” Disney. Texas’s Greg Abbot stood up to the “open borders” White House. And the GOP newbies? They’re smart enough to stay on message; by sticking to crime, higher prices, and “woke” school boards, they lump the Democrat into a basket of irresponsibles.
Election night should be worth a little late-night-TV watching. The Conservative Guardian will be posting on social media throughout the evening. Hell, with Musk now owning Twitter, you might be able to see my tweets!
Coming next week: checking in on the Senate.