How many times have I admitted in these posts that Trump, even after two years, is an enigma to me? A lot, but the recent G20 meeting in Buenos Aires turned another page to reveal more about the leader of the free world – and it has everything to do with trade and Chinese President Xi.
Let’s start with what we did not see in Argentina. Trump did not meet with the Russian president or Saudi prince, meaning he actually did something (gasp) presidential. There were no wars of words with Merkel or Trudeau, and the mainstream media had no breaking news on Trump’s latest verbal blunder or destruction of an alliance. Perhaps the boorish mogul from Queens is learning the fine art of politesse on the job.
What was widely reported and acknowledged by political pundits of every political stripe was that Trump was the absolute center of attention from start (USMCA signing ceremony) to end (dinner with Xi). In contrast, once-pretty-boy Macron (French president) sat in silence, embarrassed by the riots back home that his globalist-elite policies on the environment had triggered. And when the Russian president and Saudi crown prince high-fived, it just looked like gallows humor from two men on Trump’s sh*t list.
Meanwhile, Trump was polishing his trade resume, and President Xi was having his face egged from every possible angle. The Chinese economy is the worst it’s been in ten years. England just got a Brexit dope-slap from the EU. Paris is burning because Macron removed too many worker protections. In contrast, the American economy is humming. Heh-heh-heh.
Xi flew to Buenos Aires after his soybean election strategy had failed. He had calculated that rural voters in Indiana, Missouri and South Dakota would blame Trump for China’s retaliatory tariffs on soybeans, re-electing incumbent Democrats to the senate and weakening the US president politically. His tactics failed big time: Donnell, McCaskill and Heitkamp were replaced by Trump Republicans, expanding the GOP’s hold on the senate.
What is worse, the US president knew Xi’s political gambit had failed and did a sack-dance in front of the G20 audience. Soon after arriving in Argentina, Xi had to sit on the sidelines while Trump celebrated his victory over NAFTA, the other “worst trade deal in American history.” There sat Trump (as orange-tanned and peroxided blonde as ever) between two recently-castrated bantam roosters.
To the victors go the spoils in war and trade negotiations. To wit, Trump had personally named the NAFTA replacement, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the gut-punching news for Xi was every G20 conferee understood the USMCA’s paramount trade no-no was buying or trans-shipping Chinese auto components – because of USMCA wage and country-of-origin mandates.
Perhaps Xi bounces back in a later round, but that is not the issue here. Rather, Trump has proven to Xi this US president is no trade lightweight. He recognized Xi’s political strategy, campaigned tirelessly, and prevailed. He finally convinced Mexico and Canada who their real trade enemy was. I think Xi must be feeling a little bit like Appolo Creed against Rocky Balboa: who is this guy?
Trump has a lot of work left to do on fair-and-reciprocal trade with China. Of course, Xi is not going to lay down, because his economic goal is to re-position China as the world’s preeminent technology, manufacturing and military power. To this end, Xi is leader for life, and Trump could get bounced in 2020.
Xi can afford to wait until America elects a trade lightweight like Elizabeth Warren, perhaps until 2024. Let’s hope Trump prevails because he is 100% right to fight against Chinese economic, technological and military hegemony. So, here’s a bit of advice to the anti-Trump crowd. Elect a Democrat in 2020 and you’ll discover how much you miss your (Trump) water when your (trade) well runs dry, because President Trump is dumb like a fox on trade.