Earlier this week, House Minority Whip Scalise (R-LA) noted “faux-mentum” being orchestrated by Democrats and their media allies. One can’t help but observe the propaganda (improved polls) and strategy (scare away MAGA voters) and feel the in-party’s panic, especially after Friday’s RCP averages (graphic above) showed the Republican Party gaining 2 governors, 2 senators, and 21 seats in the House.
Those numbers are truer than what Joe Biden or Joy Behar says, because Real Clear Politics averages all polls as a check upon the single (often-biased) poll used by most news outlets as click bait. Heard of Hendrix College in Conway, Arkansas? Probably not, but they put out a poll. What is true is that poll after poll found Biden’s “semi-fascism” and “MAGA threats” speeches repulsed Americans (most Democrats agreed his were “divisive” words).
Something else. Biden’s words turned “shy” Republicans into “submerged” polling respondents, according to pollster Robert Cahaly at the Trafalgar Group, which noted a sharp drop in GOP polling respondents afterward. The American Association of Polling and Research had already reported under-polling of Republicans (again); Cahaly says the 2022 polls are now even more suspect. Sadly, it’s what Biden wanted; Republicans too scared to speak up now or show up on Election Day.
Despite the spin, the President’s job approval is still 10 points underwater in the RCP average. That’s a national number; it’s not that good in battleground districts or with independent voters. It’s worse at the granular level, where both parties agree there are “important” election issues and issue-driven voters, and those RCP polling averages paint a grim picture of Biden’s approval:
- Crime – 19 points underwater
- The Economy – 19.2 points underwater
- Immigration – 22.2 points underwater
- Inflation – 31.4 points underwater
- Direction of Country – 36 points underwater
Because Republicans are being under-polled, I rely on most-accurate Trafalgar and most-frequent Reuters to get a credible view of Biden’s approval. Right now, Trafalgar has him at 39% approval and 55% disapproval, and Reuters (on 9-20) has him at 39% approval and 57% disapproval. Reuters’ numbers are only 2 points improved from July 25.
While these numbers are compelling, the real Biden problem is the eye-ball test.
What do you see? Probably the same fumbly-mumbly speeches and bumbly-stumbly movements streaming on social media and ridiculed on late-night TV. If you associate Biden’s public persona with your parents’ nursing-home years, don’t think swing voters see him any differently. This is why his aides wrote those mean speeches and approved that Mar-a-Lago raid: better to be seen as vengeful than senile.
If the high court’s Dobbs ruling ensured a bigger Democrat than Republican turn-out, Chuck Schumer wouldn’t have told Senate colleagues there was “a 60% chance we hold the Senate, and a 40% chance we hold the House” (source: NYPost). And America Votes, a Democrat get-out-the-vote group, would not have recently told party donors that “Democrats are competitive in many races that might have been blowouts a few months ago, but (the) MAGA surge is real. GOP turnout will be very high.”
Those alerts align with analysis from John Couvillon that found party turnout for mid-term primaries is predictive of turnout in the following elections. This has been the case since 2006; most recently in 2018, when the Democrats’ 8-point primary advantage resulted in a 9-point lead in the election. With the last primary in the books, Republicans ended up with a 4-point lead in share of 2022 primary votes. This is a REAL measure of voter enthusiasm.
Back to the America Votes warning: the Democrats’ 17.8 million primary votes this year are the second-best ever. Too bad (for them) the Republicans’ 19.3 million primary votes are the best ever. Of even greater significance, the GOP smashed its 2018 turnout in six battleground state primaries (source: Yahoo News):
- Arizona up 66%
- Georgia up 98%
- Michigan up 9%
- Nevada up 42%
- Pennsylvania up 85%
- Wisconsin up 52%
The disconnect is clear. While left-leaning Raw Story can run the “Trump-loving GOP Candidates Flopping Hard in Midwest Governor Races” headline, the real numbers and internal conversations are closer to the truth.
The two parties’ mid-term strategies could not be more different. The DNC wants to turn out its base by running on abortion and against Trump. The RNC wants to peel away disaffected Democrats and Independents by running on kitchen table issues and against far-left radicals. Thus, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was smart to release the “Commitment To America” agenda in late September; after August’s CPI numbers and September’s Fed meeting. He was hoping for – and got – bad economic news that Republican candidates could pin on their Democrat rivals.
If the new GOP plan sounds like Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America” from 1994, it’s because that ploy worked. It’s four pillars clearly intend to make Democrats defend what the far-left hoisted on everyday citizens:
- Remove government-imposed obstacles to workers and builders
- Reverse soft-on-crime policies that have caused violence in US communities
- Advance excellence in education and respect for parents and teachers
- Make Washington serve the needs of the people
The agenda at once keeps inexperienced politicians like Herschel Walker (R-GA) on message and forces vulnerable incumbents like Maggie Hassan (D-NH) to talk less about abortion and January 6. At the same time, big-money PACs (run by Koch and Reed) “leaked” plans for big-money ad campaigns in swing districts. These factors are helpful, but the economy is the hammer. With six weeks left, Democrats have nowhere to turn for good news.
Petrol prices were falling, but pump prices are now soaring in the Midwest and West. Fuel prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland hit “record highs” this week (source: Bloomberg). Inflation was flattening, until core CPI rose more than expected in August (source: CNN). The Fed raised interest rates (again) on Wednesday, and pledged more hikes to come. Major stock indices tanked Friday, and a Bear Market is here.
What voters know is all of this happened with Democrats in complete control. What Republicans will advertise is that Democrat policies made this happen. What Democrats must explain is how and why these bad things happened. Mark it down – September 24 – and decide if there was real momentum on the Left, or just desperate partisans out there saying (and reporting) anything to hold onto power.