Last Friday, a reader sought reassurance about the midterm elections. (Aren’t we all?) I told her to dismiss the polls and the media that uses them, expect a change election on November 8, and vote! On Monday – right on cue – CNN reported the “red wave election” was vanishing, despite Real Clear Politics (RCP) out with a polling average (see above) showing the GOP with an undeniable advantage on Labor Day:
- US Senate tied 46-46, with 8 toss-ups
- US House with GOP leading 218-183, with 34 toss-ups
- GOP leading state governor races 24-15, with 11 toss-ups
Those liberal wags at CNN can hope, but it’s better to campaign with the lead for 60 days and run against President Biden, than to play catch-up and run with a president with a 54.8% unfavorable rating (source: RCP). Oh, and don’t overlook the Trafalgar poll for Arizona, with Lake (R) leading Hobbs(D) for governor.
I’ve tracked Trafalgar for six years and know their polls are the most reliable – not saying 100% accurate – check upon liberal bias elsewhere. In 2016, Ms. Clinton was up by 10 at Fox, 8 at ABC, 11 at CBS, and 7 at NBC, but Trafalgar had Trump winning 306 electoral votes (he won 304). It was the only poll with Clinton behind in Michigan and Pennsylvania (she lost both). Their latest polling found troubling news for Democrats.
On the generic House ballot, the GOP has a 6-point lead. In New York, Governor Hochul (D) has only a 5-point lead in her re-election bid (Cuomo won by 23.4 points in 2018). In Washington, Senator Murray (D) has only a 3-point lead in her re-election bid (she won by 18 points in 2016). That’s unexpectedly close, but Trafalgar saw a big shift toward non-incumbents after Biden announced his student-loan-forgiveness package, especially with middle-class and blue-collar voters.
These change-election numbers are confirmed by news from the campaign trail. Democrats trailed on Labor Day, despite out-spending Republicans over the summer. Many House candidates won’t campaign with Biden. Many Senate candidates won’t debate their GOP rivals. The President is campaigning against Trump. (2024 or 2020, who can tell?) With conservative PACs set to pound his “failed policies” this fall with big swing-district media buys, it’s a bad time to run out of talking points.
In his campaign against “semi-fascist” Trump, what Biden didn’t say spoke volumes. Nothing about crime (his party is the Defund The Police Party) or gun control (Congress just passed a gun control bill). Nothing on immigration (border chaos is alienating Hispanic voters) or social justice (House Republicans helped codify gay marriage, while Herschel Walker [GA] and John James [MI] were nominated by the GOP).
He can’t scare voters about climate change – not after what petrol cost this summer – or about COVID-19, because Americans have already moved on. Voters are already scared of woke educators and the economy – and blame this president and his party for making matters worse.
So, what does this president do? Reprise Hillary Clinton’s “deplorable” speech; viewed as “dangerous” and “divisive” by 89.1% of Republicans, 62.4% of Independents, and 18.7% of Democrats. Biden threw the political equivalent of a “Hail Mary” pass, always a sign of desperation or recklessness. From a US president, it’s a bad look.
And that’s the way it is – 9 weeks away from Election Day.