Since the spring of 2020, many millions of Americans have relocated out of blue states and into red states, and the numbers are growing. Just last week, real estate broker Redfin confirmed that a “record number of potential US homebuyers are seeking to relocate” and published a top-10 list of moving-out cities (party-in-charge added):
- San Francisco (Democrat)
- Los Angeles (Democrat)
- New York (Democrat)
- Washington DC (Democrat)
- Seattle (Democrat)
- Boston (Democrat)
- Detroit (Democrat)
- Denver (Democrat)
- Chicago (Democrat)
- Minneapolis (Democrat)
The direction is unmistakable: away from Democrat-run cities. So’s the political message: Florida and Texas are the top destinations, and these shrinking cities share most of four problems: (1) high taxes, (2) rising crime rates, (3) businesses hurt by COVID policies, and (4) students hurt by school closures and “woke” curricula.
A citizen’s right to easily re-locate to another state is the best argument for America’s federal system. Thanks to the founding fathers, a New Yorker is free to move his tax residence to Florida and wear his Yankees cap. For the second time, the pursuit of happiness has triggered a Great Migration of millions to like-minded communities, with vast political consequences.
The political lean of the new residents is crystal clear. New Boise residents tell pollsters they wanted out of hard-left congressional districts. In one year, new Florida residents have given the GOP a 175,000 registration advantage. GOP primary turnout in Georgia, Iowa, and Texas skyrocketed this year. So, what does this hold for the future?
Today, it means the polls are even more unreliable, because old sampling methods won’t account for non-Democrats moving to the suburbs and sunbelt. In November, it will mean red states see many thousands of new GOP votes in swing districts. In 2031, it will mean a big shift in House districts and electoral votes to not-so-blue states.
This is what I will be watching on Election Night in November: have conservatives left deep-blue House districts (where their votes were meaningless for years) to flip purple districts to the GOP for years to come?