Numerous legacy media have articles up predicting the Dobbs decision has so fired up voters, Democrats will keep control of Congress. I did a deep dive on the issue and found partisan bias at work. Roe will fire up some Democrats, but they are the same hard-core liberals who always turn out to vote, and skew the polls. Here’s why Dobbs won’t matter.
Do the Math: Voters
There are 1,000,000 fewer registered Democrats than one year ago. A year ago in Florida, Democrats had 25,000 more registered voters than the GOP. Now, the GOP advantage is over 175,000. CBS news reports the shift is greatest in the suburbs, especially in swing states (CO, GA, IA, NC, OH, PA).
Joe Biden is president because he won swing states like Pennsylvania, where his party has lost three registered voters in 2022 for every one they’ve gained. Those voters re-registered for a reason (fed up with Democrats) and won’t flip back in four months. Come November, firing up a smaller base does not add up for Democrats.
Democrat policies have alienated once-loyal voting blocs. Axios reports the “largest” minority group (Latinos) has shifted to the GOP, closing the 47-point advantage Democrats held in 2018. CNN reports the “fastest-growing” group (Asians) has shifted to the GOP, closing the 44-point advantage Democrats held in 2020. This was the Virginia 2021 revelation; a majority of Asians and Latinos voted Republican.
Asians and Hispanics are not socially progressive and have specific beefs with Democrats. Asians were victimized by quotas at elite schools and ending merit-based advancement. Hispanics were victimized by shut-down orders that hurt their small businesses, service-sector jobs, and local public schools.
Do the Math: Issues
Legal abortion is down the list of “important issues” on the ballot. CNN has a story up about Roe’s effect on the mid-term elections: inconclusive. Even with Democrat voters, it lags gun policies, the economy, inflation, and political division. It’s a big issue for only 3% of independents and 2% of Republicans (both cite the economy as the overwhelming top issue).
Moreover, CNN found abortion was “the most important problem” to only 3% of midwest voters, and 4% of voters in the west and south. It is important only in the northeast, which has not been a “battleground” since 1988. Plus, this blue area has lost voters and House seats to the southeast since 2018.
Virginia also provided an interesting “tell” on the electorate: millennials became interested in parent issues like the safety of “their” community and the education of “their” kids. Don’t sleep on the impact of early ultrasounds on so many “new” parents (OBGYNs prove the “existence of life” to every expectant couple; not so easy to un-see).
Abortion Might Be a Post-Peak Issue
The GOP believes mid-term success turns on candidate likability, gaffe-free debate, big ad spends, and ensuring election integrity. Victorious Glenn Youngkin checked all four boxes; notably, having GOP lawyers at every red-flag polling station and counting facility (just saying).
The mid-terms will be a referendum on Biden and high prices. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to your co-workers, family, friends, and service providers (the guy fixing your water heater), who are paying too much for petrol and watching stock indices go down. Who wants more of that? Even legacy media (not just Fox News) are now piling on the hapless Biden.
If the GOP lost pro-choice voters, it’s because they profiled THAT voter (single, college-educated woman, living in a city) and know WHAT she really hates (male patriarchy). And, as women grow their share of architecture (59%), law (51.1%), medical (53.7%), and MBA (41%) degrees – and lead the GOP – Republicans believe THAT issue is post-peak, especially with 253 GOP women in House primaries!
Don’t Believe the Polls
You will read and hear legacy media belittle outside-the-box candidates, such as Georgian Herschel Walker, and wonder if he can win. Don’t. Even now, after the illegitimate kids story, he’s in a dead heat. Walker can, of course, lose, but his humble demeanor and pro-America message should win in a wave election. Is Biden in the White House? Then don’t bet against Herschel (Go Dawgs!).