I read lots of left-leaning research, which is filled of late with reports of GOP inroads with Hispanic voters. Most blame the loss of energy and hospitality jobs. Some blame conservative incubation, such as buying homes, raising kids, or starting a business. Only a few blame social radicalism, which is anathema to the cultural mainstream of 61 million Latin Americans and has triggered a pan-American religious nationalism movement. Not a moment too soon!
The politics of identity compels today’s liberals to over-talk “race” to the detriment of domestic tranquility. After Buffalo’s tragedy, Governor Hochul (D-NY) bemoaned “white supremacy” and liberals tweeted Elise Stefanik (R-NY) feared “replacement” by immigrants. If this is how Democrats defend their law and order record, their support will continue to plummet until November. Politico reports 75% of voters blame “defund the police” for rising crime, including the vast majority of Hispanic voters.
Numerous polls found Hispanics are tired of race-based politics. They resent being grouped by Democrats into “persons of color” and seeing border agents (over 50% Latino) called “racist” oppressors on TV. In fact, Latinos leaned rightward after Obama (71% of their vote). Biden now has only 26% Latino approval (source: Reuters). Yet, in 2020, liberal media still portrayed the GOP as “paying a stiff price for defaming immigrants” (source: Boston Globe). A lot of that was anti-Trump bias.
That was the Democrat 2021 strategy in Virginia; belittling GOP candidates as “Trumpkins” and pushing “woke” social policies. They were a confident lot: Vice President Harris promised that “what happens in Virginia will determine what happens in 2022.” Except Republicans swept Virginia, and Democrats lost Hispanic support – down from 60% in 2020 to 43% (source: AP/NORC). GOP-aligned Latino groups credit this shift to the DNC losing the “culture war” with Hispanics, whose assimilation into the USA holds onto Christianity and buys into the American Dream.
The DNC sees the trend, but claims the GOP sells “religious nationalism and the American dream” to fraudulently attract Hispanics via a “consolidated digital strategy that’s facilitated the GOP’s Hispanic outreach efforts” (source: New Republic). Half true, because the RNC runs the Data Trust to curate Latino voter files, and funds Latino-focused social media, but the market and the message is controlled by Spanish-speaking Christians; like Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, whose NHCLC promotes conservative values “via the conduit of 40,000 megachurches.” It’s a case study in grass roots politics.
Democrat strategist Chuck Rocha credits the shift to “greater” GOP and “lackluster” DNC efforts, but the root cause is how Hispanics self-align; by cultural heritage, rather than skin color. A recent study by Oxford University (UK) found most Latin Americans claim “European” heritage. 100% speak a European language. 81% practice a European religion. If they out-marry, 80% marry a Gringo, and 5% an Asian (source: USCB). The old trope “birds of a feather flock together” is a golden oldie because it’s mostly true.
In fact, Hispanics carry “their culture” across the border, which is why they don’t like “Latinx voters” (made-up word) or connect to aggregate “non-white” voting blocs. Pew Research found almost all Latin Americans migrated AWAY from bad schools, bad crime, and bad jobs – not TO an anti-church, anti-family, or pro-socialist country. When Democrat James Carville blamed his party’s “woke” wing for losing everyday voters, he was not excluding Latinos.
One of 103 Hispanic GOP House candidates in 2022 is Carolina Serrano (R-NV), who’s running because “Hispanics want safe communities, good schools, good-paying jobs, and just to overall live a good life.” She saw “that, after voting for Democrats for so long, life has actually gotten worse” in Nevada. This is why Jesse Holguin founded LEXIT (Latino Exit from the Democratic Party) and why Latinos overlook HOW Trump talks. They are more afraid of “woke” and “socialist” Democrats.
The Conservative Latino movement is not unlike the 1960’s civil-rights movement (churches) or the 1980’s pro-life movement (talk radio). Catholic Latinos are now moving to evangelical Christianity in growing numbers. Important, because 67% of Latino Catholics voted for Biden and 58% of Latino Protestants voted for Trump (source: AP/NORC). Rev. Rodriguez (NHCLC), part of Trump’s “evangelical” board, predicts 25,000 more Hispanic evangelical churches by 2030.
This mega-church foundation gave birth to a pan-American network of Spanish-speaking conservative talk radio. The crown jewel is Americano, begun by Peruvian Ivan Garcia-Hidalgo. Its mix of local and Sirius XM radio stations airs right-wing and religious content to almost “500 million Spanish-speakers” from Buenos Aires to Boston; thus, when Dianelys Guerra interviewed Trump in April, she had more Hispanics than CNN or MSNBC.
This is a consequential civilization moment for the USA; advancing religion and patriotism via high-growth Spanish-speaking churches and talk radio. It’s a proven “ground game” from earlier social struggles that is still a winning strategy. Nilsa Alvarez, strategist for the Road to Majority, says: “Every area that our Hispanic teams mobilized in 2020 went majority red. So we’re just going to grow that momentum.” So, despite bad press, Trump increased his share of Hispanic votes by 9 points as president. To be sure, he lost, but five facts are eye-opening:
- Miami-Dade is the largest Latino ”swing” county in America. Biden won 53% of their vote (down from Obama at 63% in 2012).
- Hidalgo is the most populous border county in Texas. Biden won 58% of the vote (down from Obama at 70% in 2012).
- Zapata County (TX) is 94 % Latino and voted Republican in 2020 for the first time in 100 years.
- Record numbers of Hispanics in South Texas voted Republican in 2020.
- This March, Hispanic turnout for GOP primaries in South Texas was 25% higher than the aforementioned 2020 vote total (source: 5NBCDFW).
As a political movement, where does this take America? Serrano puts it simply: “Donald Trump came into office [and] I started paying attention to what he was saying. To champion America or put American citizens first grabbed my attention. Hispanics are no different from white Americans, Asian Americans, black Americans. Trump actually put some policies in place that worked for all Americans.”
Now, imagine those policies articulated by Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) or Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM). These are voices Democrats swear they want to hear, but only when they are part of the aggrieved identity chorus. The view here is the Democrat-Latino honeymoon is over, and Hispanics will vote their pocketbooks and Christian consciences in November.