The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back, because the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.
Presidential Barack Obama (in 2012 debate)
If Joe Biden were a true leader (clear vision) and smart statesman (pragmatic), then he’d ask for Secretary of State Blinken’s resignation and appoint Mitt Romney. Utah’s senator was just as right on Putin’s Russia as Churchill was on Hitler’s Germany. And, just as London’s “smart” set isolated Churchill, the “elites” in Washington ridiculed Romney. Ahem, it’s not smart to tolerate mad men or elite to tune out prophets. It’s a surefire recipe for war, so how did the US invite one again?
Like most liberals, Biden ignored national self-survival (strong military and tough cops) to tout societal self-awareness (equity-seeking military and anti-racist cops). Like Hitler, Putin has adopted inhumane means to reach a delusional end (empire). Like Austria back then, the Ukraine is kinda-sorta Russian to the anti-war crowd. We’ve seen this movie before – except brave Ukrainians are resisting!
The Puny Protagonist
One thing I’ve learned in my 67 years, including lots of time studying and working abroad, is that foreigners pay close attention to what US presidents do and say. Thus, Vladimir Putin sees the Joe Biden you and I see: physically feeble, pre-occupied with a social-justice battle at home, and stifling America’s strategic geopolitical advantages. Mind you, the President is seen through a despot’s eyes (a weak adversary ripe for mauling by the Russian bear).
Last June, Putin read post-summit reports like CNN’s: “the decision to not hold a joint press conference [that] Russia pushed for was something White House officials resisted because they did not want to give Putin a platform to appear like he’d gotten the better of a US president.” By admitting Putin could “get the better of” the President, Biden’s handlers fed the Russian’s ego – just like Biden’s tolerance of 2020’s race riots was cited by Putin as “disorder we’ll not allow to happen.”
Those optics were bad enough, but cutting US carbon-energy production and enabling the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline fueled the winds of war. According to Reuters, Russia exported between 2.2 billion and 2.9 billion barrels of oil in 2021, meaning the world paid at least $155 billion into Putin’s war machine. At least, Trump got the facts right: (1) natural gas had reduced US carbon emissions, (2) net-energy-exporting improved the US economy, and (3) stifling Russian oil exports had weakened an enemy. Remind me again, who’s Putin’s puppet?
The Arrogant Antagonist
Calling Putin a “mad man” is of no tactical use – not after Bush looked “into his heart” and Obama sent a “reset button” to appease him. Putin made this horrible choice (invasion) because 4 US “mad men” invited his arrogance. Bush did nothing when Georgia was invaded (2008), Obama ignored Crimea’s annexation (2014), Trump said he’d “get along” with him (2016), and Biden tweeted a false “toe to toe” boast (2018). Putin was enabled by US presidents from both parties.
Putin knows Clinton’s Trump-Russia allegations to be untrue, Biden has no popular support after the Afghanistan fiasco, and nuclear rivals don’t go to war with each other. It’s not “insane” to believe power-hungry Republicans and progressive Democrats will NOT support Biden, or the US military reaction will be anything MORE than arming and reinforcing existing NATO members. A severely divided America and no more NATO members is what Putin wants.
The view here is Putin would be “mad” to occupy Ukraine, because Russia does not have the force posture to do so. Thus, Putin will either stay the course to set up a puppet regime or continue with punitive attacks until Ukraine enters peace talks amenable to every Russian demand. Right now, it looks like Putin over-estimated his hand and under-estimated the existential threat he’s presented to the EU and NATO.
The Hapless Victim
In 1938, many ethnic Germans saw the Anschluss as the inevitable unification of Austria and Germany, which is how Putin sells his Ukraine invasion. Using Hitler’s playbook, he’s undermined the Ukrainian government, cultivated pro-unification sentiment, amassed military on the border, and threatened a full invasion. A superior bully forcing an inferior victim to bow or suffer, but unlike 1938, the Ukrainians met Putin’s attack with all-out resistance.
An independent Ukraine has struggled for 100 years. Its free-state status after World War I was brief: the Russian Revolution brought civil wars in 1917 and Soviet annexation in 1922. Stalin’s harsh agricultural policies caused the Holodomor (famine) in 1932, leaving at least 2.6 million dead. Hitler occupied the Ukraine in 1942, costing 7.9 million lives and leaving 19 million homeless. Chernobyl in 1986. The USSR collapse in 1991. The Budapest Memorandum in 1994.
In that memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal (1,800 Soviet weapons) based on US President Bill Clinton’s security assurances and Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s non-aggression promise. If President Zelensky had short-range tactical nukes and air-launched cruise missiles, Putin’s generals would have probably said “Nyet!” to invading Ukraine (no wonder Kim Jong-un holds onto his nukes).
The Cozy Enablers
Germany is the great power in Mittel Europa that could have checked Putin’s western push. West Germany launched Ostpolitik in 1969 to normalize relations with eastern Europe, and became complete pacifists in 1989 with the collapse of the USSR. Back then, their military had twelve divisions. Now, after its frontiers have moved east and are guarded by others, Germany has seven divisions and never pays its required share of NATO dues.
The EU, despite Trump’s warnings, became energy dependent on Russia (e.g. Nord Stream 2 pipeline); thereby funding Putin’s war coffers. NATO, despite Putin’s warnings, kept floating the idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. It was reckless talk in 2008, while Kyiv claimed sovereignty over Sevastopol, the most important port for the Russian navy, and continued with European members asking Ukraine to take a hard line on Russia.
Russian banks and businesses were welcomed in Asia, Europe, and the Americas, where oligarchs bought mega-mansions and docked mega-yachts. In the EU and NATO, nobody cried when Biden’s anti-petroleum executive orders took away the ability of the U.S. and its allies to sanction Russian oil exports. To everyone who wants to party like it’s 1998, those days are gone, especially in Europe.
Now What?
Leaders in G20 nations have just been reminded that peace does not just happen. Europeans must pay for their own defense, because the USA cannot provide security both across the Atlantic and the Pacific. Asian allies must ask America what can WE do to keep China in check? Islamic allies must ask America what can WE do to keep Iran in check? America can demand all allies must PAY UP for superior US technology and weaponry.
Above all, American citizens must turn our right to vote into a geopolitical weapon. The Democrat Party must support election-integrity laws (more photo IDs, in-person paper ballots and ballot-counting surveillance), and college-educated elites must accept the collective wisdom of the American masses. If Russia can subvert US elections, make cyber-meddling impossible. It sure looks like those America First goobers got it right in 2016 and 2020, so don’t resist their choice next time!
This last point is paramount. Biden’s approval just hit 37%, its lowest yet (source: ABC News) – and why is that? Because the masses can admit his election was a mistake. One week ago, 73% of Americans disapproved of US energy policy, and 64% disapproved of Biden’s handling of Russia (source: Gallup). His party should support democracy 100%; by expecting a mid-term shellacking, accepting GOP wins in November, and thanking the masses for making democracy work.
The free world cannot get rid of the Biden administration quickly enough. The Top Gun sunglasses aren’t fooling anybody in Beijing, Moscow or Tehran. This! This is what happens when far-left Democrats get a puppet in the Oval Office. People – Ukrainians abroad and school kids at home – get hurt.