Surely you’ve been in a social setting when a fellow Republican dissed Trump, or watched the news when a Woke Democrat slammed Joe Manchin. You are witnessing America’s two-party system fragmenting into multi-tribal politics. First reported in 2017 by The Voter Survey (5 tribes) and Pew Research (9 tribes), the trend was clarified in 2018 by More In Common (7 tribes), and simplified in 2022 by Real Clear Politics (5 tribes). It’s why the polls are wrong and how Congress will change hands in 2022.
America’s Five Political Tribes
Real Clear Politics found America’s political divisions, once primarily economic, are increasingly driven by cultural disruptions (biological boys in girls sports) and social fears (racist cops). America has undeniably made progress (rural electrification) and become more just (universal suffrage), meaning the pace of change toward and unknowns of a “future perfect” America are today’s flashpoints.
MAGA – 14%: Mostly white, but split evenly between men and women, they are the most pessimistic (80%) about America’s future; fearful of cancel culture and not convinced that even “diversity through legal immigration makes us stronger.” Most of them (93%) voted for Trump in 2020.
Mainline Republican – 27%: Mostly white (81%), male (57%), older than the average voter, the largest tribe, and the fastest growing since 2018. Despite not sharing the MAGA views on racialism and legal immigration, most of them (89%) still voted for Trump in 2020.
Democrat-Lean Multiculturalists – 20%: Racially diverse (53% non-white), younger (50% Millennials or Gen Z), and split evenly between men and women. Most of them (63%) voted for Biden, but polling shows them increasingly becoming swing voters.
Institutionalist Democrats – 20%: Mostly white (72%) with the most females of all tribes. Most of them (82%) voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but only half still support the President. In spite of being less pessimistic about America’s future than Republicans, 66% still want a third political party.
Woke Democrats – 19%: This was “the resistance” and, with Trump gone, its numbers have decreased the most of any tribe. More female (54%) than male (46%). It is surprisingly (63%) white and predictably young (56%). Most (80%) view Biden’s job performance favorably.
What’s on Their Minds in 2022
There’s no such thing as a winning 10-point plan to sway the electorate (see Elizabeth Warren), because most, if not all, voters choose the least risky candidate (or the least risky policy promise). In 1964, voters feared Goldwater would start a nuclear war. In 1988, voters feared Dukakis would empty the jails. So, what’s eating at America’s partisan tribes?
MAGA is fundamentally a populist movement; blue-collar workers and small-business owners united by what the elites in business and government have done to them, especially in the last two years. They were “at work” exposed to COVID, while executives were at home on ZOOM. They had to wear masks, while patrons dined maskless. A flood of illegal aliens depressed their wages, and inflation made things cost more. That guy in the MAGA hat seems angry because he IS angry.
Mainline GOP voters are OK with President Biden’s mask-and-vaccine mandates, but frightened by his defense and economic management. They want Reagan Competence; the “peace through strength” that ended the USSR, and the “less regulation and taxes” that spurred growth without inflation. They are angered by “cancel culture” attacks on America’s constitutional ideals, showing up in Virginia in 2021 to prove there are still adults in the room.
The Multiculturists feel betrayed by Democrats, who promised to end “structural racism” but engaged in culture wars (white oppressors – black victims) and invented crackpot solutions (defund the police). The last two years have opened THEIR eyes to Biden and his party. It was THEIR hours reduced by shut-down orders, THEIR kid’s school that closed for two years, THEIR police department that lost funding, and THEIR paycheck that can’t make ends meet.
Institutional Dems no longer have Trump to “resist” in the voting booth – or in the polls – and they resent the “woke BS” just as much as mainline GOP voters. Right now, they are fearful because so many centrists are retiring or challenged by AOC wannabes in the primaries, agreeing with Mike Bloomberg: “without a course correction, the party is headed for a wipeout in November, up and down the ballot.” He is, of course, predicting this bloc won’t even vote in 2022.
The view here is Woke Dems have had their fifteen minutes of fame, because Virginia 2021 proved they are the bad breath of American liberalism; still for defunding the police, race-based lesson plans in public schools, and wealth re-distribution. Needless to note, the majority of 2022 Democrats are NOT talking up those issues.
What Are the 2022 Dynamics?
The view here is the mainline GOP does well as the primaries play out, with candidates who can speak to MAGA voters (for closed borders and opened schools) without being Trump acolytes. Further, the GOP will add COVID-weary multicultural voters, whom Biden has so disappointed. Finally, woke candidates will under-perform in Democrat primaries; thereby salvaging the party’s relevance in the new Congress, and preventing a wipeout in 2024.