Civil war? Not!

I’ve said it many times, and it is no more true or real than when we think about the events of Jan. 6: We are in a battle for the soul of America, a battle that by the grace of God and by the goodness and greatness of this nation, we will win.

President Biden (January 6th)

It was for political gain when Biden declared a “battle for the soul of America” last week: get voters to see January 6 as more than some misguided creeps on a crime spree. He’ll have a hard time convincing voters a civil war is brewing: a CBS News poll found only 4% of voters “strongly approve” of the Capitol rioters in spite of 75% saying some “voter fraud and irregularities” occurred in 2020.

Good luck convincing voters of a GOP insurrection: CBS found 76% of voters say the Capitol riots were a “protest that went too far” (including 69% of Democrats, 80% of Independents and Republicans). If Biden ignores un-checked China abroad and obsesses about the “existential threat” of his political rivals at home, Republicans don’t have to fire a shot to gain power.

It’s 2022 and Biden’s disapproval is 56% (source: Civiqs). After reclaiming Virginia, Republicans expect to regain Congress, a view confirmed by Democrat pollsters. In Civiqs’ poll, 58% of voters aged 18-29 don’t want this president to even run in 2024. Why would a Republican grab a gun when Biden’s shooting himself in the foot, or secede when AOC’s stabbing the senators from Arizona and West Virginia in the back? Given fair elections, Republicans know they’ll reclaim power.

I live in Florida and North Carolina, after many years in Virginia, and I talk daily to MAGA voters, who’re now obsessed with “open and honest” elections – and that’s more pro-democracy than a bunch of lawyers fighting over “hanging chads” in 2000, leaking the “Russian Dossier” in 2016, or forcing swing states to waive voter-ID laws in 2020. Sadly, Trump did Democrats a solid by not conceding the 2020 election. He foolishly provided the smoke that allowed them to yell, “fire!”

The root cause of this “civil war” talk is Trump: too many failed lawsuits and his “Stop The Steal” protest, which opposed the lawful transfer of power under the guise of patriotism. Democrats did rightly impeach the ex-President and investigate the perpetrators, but they have wrongly smeared Republicans as “anti-American” and “anti-democracy.” Voters know what’s really going on in their country.

For one, 74,000,000 Republicans know Democrat-funded lawyers used COVID to liberalize election laws in battleground states in 2020, resulting in implausible vote totals. A majority of voters in thirty red states rightly empowered state legislatures to find “fraud loopholes” and lawfully close them.

A growing number of independent voters don’t think “election integrity” laws are exclusive to GOP-controlled states, probably because the National Conference of State Legislatures reported all 50 states introduced election-related bills in 2021. In Arkansas, a law was amended to require “voters casting provisional ballots to show photo ID by noon on the Monday following Election Day.” California passed a new law, specifying “an exact signature is not required to determine validity.”

In time, citizens will conclude “election integrity” is subject to political spin, and a photo-ID law is no reason to send Union soldiers into Arkansas. Isn’t it easier to just get a photo ID or move to California? In fact, for every Trump voter in DC on the 6th of January, there were 10,000 in U-Hauls, making the second Great Migration in US history; now from blue states to red states.

This is true, and it’s a deterrent to secession or civil war. Analyst Jared Walczak broke down 2021 Census Bureau data and found an economic exodus from 5 high-tax states (e.g. New York) to 5 low-tax states (e.g. Florida). The California Policy Lab found a 2021 exodus from lock-down states (e.g. California) to open-up states (e.g. Texas).

According to Census Bureau data from June 2020 to July 2021, the largest losses of population were in New York (319,000), California (261,000) and Illinois (113,000), and the largest gains were in Texas (310,000) and Florida (211,000). It’s simple: the “losers” are blue states with high taxes and more regulations, and the “winners” are red states with low taxes and fewer regulations. Red states South Dakota, South Carolina and West Virginia also gained residents in 2021 (source: Fox Business).

If there’s a civil war anywhere, it’s in liberal media. Salon asked, “After insurrection, a second Civil War?” The Nation asked, “Who are the Sons of Confederate Veterans?” The topic “civil war” appears often in the Times and Post and on MSNBC and CNN, whose dwindling audiences hardly represent America. Where else have you read or heard Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears (R-VA) called “the black face of white supremacy” without a laugh track?

The last people to trample the “soul of America” would be the folks holding a steady job and paying off their college loans. That goes double for business owners and tax payers, or church-goers and good parents, or those in the US military and police departments. Almost all of those folks would never ever storm the Capitol, despite most of them not trusting Biden and his party with the soul of America.

Democrat internal polling shows those Americans plan to vote them out of power, which is why 25 Dems have already announced 2022 is their last year in the House. With red states gaining new tax payers (and voters), and 66% of Independent and Hispanic voters sour on Biden, conservatives don’t need to secede, turn over cop cars, loot hardware stores, occupy Wall Street, or burn down Main Street. They’ll just “vote the bums out” in 2022.

The only interest in civil war’s on the left. To wit, after the Supreme Court waffled a little on abortion in December, the New York Times blared “We’re Edging Closer to Civil War” to its fans, kinda-sorta justifying civil war over some limits on abortion in Texas.

Civil war is mighty risky, so I wonder what those 310,000 new Texans (in 2021) think about it? Hard to say for sure, but I’m guessing not: boy, I’d sure like me some civil war to go with that brisket!

By Spencer Morten

The writer is a retired CEO of a US corporation, whose views were informed by studies and work in the US and abroad. An economist by education, and pragmatist by experience, he believes the greatest threat to peace and prosperity are the loudest voices with the least experience and expertise.