Two months ago, I gave Trump no shot at securing the GOP nomination in 2024, let alone restoring his presidency. Now, I think Joe Biden opened a window with a nod: “thanks to the prior administration, America is one of the first countries to get the vaccine.” Trump heard a complement in that statement and has since acted…well…presidential, which was always his short suit. Maybe COVID is Trump’s “issue” in 2022 and 2024 [work with me on this one…it’s Christmas].

Trump has too many faults to enumerate in this article, but lacking market insight and dissing the disenchanted are not two of them. Remember when millions of “forgotten Americans” turned out for Trump in 2016 – after ham-handed Clinton called them “deplorable” months before Election Day? I do, and Biden has created more disenchanted voters faster than any president – ever! Don’t think for a minute this is lost on Donald Trump.

Through December 22, the USA has had 800,000 COVID deaths. Most have died on Biden’s watch. Far more than 220,000 under Trump, but it was Good Ole Joe who said in the final 2020 debate, “anyone responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America.” Let’s hope the Omicron variant is the last, but if not, that video clip will air ad nauseam to voters (who now disapprove of Biden’s pandemic management).

Trump’s media allies are urging him to run as the Vaccine President. Piers Morgan tweeted, “Trump is becoming a very powerful voice in persuading America’s vaccine sceptics to get jabbed.” Bill O’Reilly told Trump, “This is good that people see another side of you. You believe in the vax. Your administration did it, and you should take credit for it.”

Last week, Trump did stay on message – much to my surprise. Asked by O’Reilly if he’d been jabbed, Trump incited “boos” from his supporters when he said “yes.” The ex-president quickly shot back, “don’t, don’t, don’t,” took full credit for Operation Warp Speed, and promoted vaccines. Get a load of his response after Candace Owens dissed “his vaccines” on Tuesday.

OWENS: “More people have died [of] COVID this year, under Joe Biden [when] more people took the vaccine this year. So people are questioning how—”

TRUMP: “Oh no, the vaccines work. The ones who get very sick and go to the hospital are the ones that don’t take the vaccine. But it’s still their choice. And if you take the vaccine, you’re protected. Look, the results of the vaccine are very good. People aren’t dying when they take the vaccine. I came up with three vaccines – all are very, very good – in less than nine months. It was supposed to take five to 12 years.” 

Trump is not anti-vax, and neither are Republicans. The liberal e-magazine Salon reported last week that age – not party affiliation – is the predominant variable in getting vaccinated, based on Pew Research finding 86% of Americans over 65 were vaccinated, and the numbers ratcheting down by age from there.

Salon wrote, “It may be politically convenient to blame the failure to achieve mass vaccination on ideological factors, [but] mass opposition to vaccination is rooted in larger cultural values, such as a tendency to embrace narcissistic ignorance and to discount the advice of medical experts.” Which is another way to say conservatives under 30 don’t think COVID is fatal and Dr. Fauci’s flip-flopping on mask mandates made him no more “expert” than Dr. Paul, the GOP senator from Kentucky.

On Friday, a poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist found Biden’s approval at 41%, the lowest ever, and his disapproval at 55%. Analyzed by party, 95% of Republicans, 66% of independents, and 11% of Democrats disapprove of the President. NPR lays blame for these dismal numbers on “a surge of Covid-19 cases” and “a concerning combination” of inflation and prices. Further, multiple polls show Biden losing to Trump in 2024.

In the horrible event that COVID and inflation are still raging in 2024, the president will be decided in a self-survival election. That’s what it will take to re-elect Donald Trump – just as it took Hitler’s conquest of Europe for Churchill to become prime minister, and the riot-filled summer of 1968 to resurrect Richard Nixon. When moms in the suburbs fear indefinite home-schooling, and Latinos fear $10 gasoline, what Trump tweets won’t matter so much.

The point here is not to endorse Mr. Trump, but to indict Biden’s bungling of the economy and COVID – just as historians indict Chamberlain for bungling England’s defense and LBJ for bungling the Vietnam War. In the spirit of full disclosure, I’d like to see DeSantis, Haley, Pompeo, or Scott at the top of the 2024 GOP ticket, but it’s foolish to ignore THE issue (if COVID continues) and how it makes Trump viable again. And that’s Biden’s fault.

By Spencer Morten

The writer is a retired CEO of a US corporation, whose views were informed by studies and work in the US and abroad. An economist by education, and pragmatist by experience, he believes the greatest threat to peace and prosperity are the loudest voices with the least experience and expertise.