Senator Manchin (D-WV) is taking broadsides from his own party, because he opposes the President’s $3.5 trillion social infrastructure bill, which independent analysts say is closer to $5 trillion over ten years. Manchin is rightly protecting the earned benefits of America’s senior citizens, who live on fixed income and need Social Security and Medicare. Sadly, 48 other Democrats are willing to sacrifice retirees to ease the lives of working millennials.
Manchin knows the national debt is $28.8 trillion and US unfunded liabilities are $156.3 trillion (source: US National Debt Clock). He’s seen the annual reports just released by trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs, showing both funds heading to insolvency faster than expected. He knows Congress has to prop up Medicare by 2026 and Social Security by 2034, because another 28,000,000 baby boomers will retire by 2031.
The Insolvency Is Out of This World!
Medicare spending is now 4.1% of America’s GDP, and will be over 6% of GDP by 2041. Outlays of Medicare’s Part A (hospital insurance) will exceed the trust fund’s income by $600 billion over the next 10 years. The fund will be insolvent by 2026, mandating either a 27% increase in payroll withholding or 16% cut in spending. That’s just to keep the program running – let alone add coverage for ears, eyes and teeth.
Social Security will have a cash-flow deficit of $147 billion this year, run cash deficits of $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, become insolvent in 13 years, and deny today’s retirees full benefits (because of current law). With another 28,000,000 retirees by 2031, the fund cannot remain solvent without a combination of benefit cuts, means-testing, and higher taxes.
If Democrats pass Biden’s Build Back Better plan, it spells disaster for retired boomers and their children’s taxes. Despite boomers growing annual GDP from $2.9 trillion (1980) to $21.4 trillion (2019), their median wealth is only $202,000, meaning 35,000,000 retirees will suffer benefit cuts and higher co-pays – hardly the “normalcy” Biden promised.
Democrats Will Renege on Their Paramount Promise
When Democrats ran an ad in 2012, depicting Paul Ryan (R-WI) rolling a wheel-chaired grandma off a cliff, they told voters entitlements were “earned” by working citizens, funded by payroll withholding, and provided only upon retirement. Now, barely 10 years later, that ad must depict Ocasio-Cortez pushing a wheel-chaired Vietnam veteran off the cliff (close-up on his peace-sign button).
AOC’s generation can risk a socialist experiment, but boomers cannot. It’s as simple as this true story. A Portland retailer had to close four stores after (1) a summer (2020) of looting and (2) losing insurance because of his city’s “defund the police” movement. At age 64, he’s moved to Las Vegas, trying to make “a cake rise twice” in a struggle to re-build his “nest egg” while paying higher wages and taxes. Facing retirement on social security, he’s one pissed-off former Democrat!
Democrats used to champion self-survival issues with moral arguments. Workers had the right to strike for better wages. Black children had the right to go to white (better) schools. Woman deserved equal (better) employment opportunities. Sadly, once-good liberals have turned to socialist dogma, now declaring entitlements are “transfers” of wealth from investors and workers to a middle class, who suddenly need “social infrastructure.”
Call the Build Back Better plan what it is: socialism. The American Families Plan doles out more free stuff (universal childcare, pre-K and community college), subsidizes paid-family leave, and expands Obamacare. The American Jobs Plan bolsters labor unions (no right-to-work laws), kills carbon-based energy, and pays for home-based elderly care. Biden’s wish list is so bad, he’s not even asking for GOP support. He’ll pass this monstrosity through one-party reconciliation.
It’s Dumb to Throw Baby Boomers Under the Bus
Democrats should remember the bra-burning feminists and flag-burning draftees that drove LBJ out of the Oval Office in 1968. If Democrats now think retired boomers will get by on “early bird” dining, co-pay half their medical bills, and quietly muddle through their golden years, they’re blind to the political reality of retired boomers. It will be the situational politics of 2016 on steroids.
In time, boomers will coalesce into a voting bloc. AARP reports two issues matter to 88% of senior citizens: (1) protect Social Security from “cuts to earned benefits” and (2) ensure Medicare is funded so “seniors get the healthcare they need.” In contrast, only 5% worry about “being laid off or furloughed,” and they don’t think climate change is the “existential crisis of our time” (Yale found seniors ranked that the 23rd “most important” issue in 2020).
As a practical matter, Americans over 61 will be aligned by 2028 like never before. Unlike the sixties, when some boomers were toddlers and some were resisting bad government (Vietnam), every boomer will be living on fixed income and dealing with chronic health issues. Thus, the situations of the butcher and banker will have more in common than not.
As a political matter, 82,000,000 retirees are one hell of a voting bloc. In 2020’s record turn-out, boomers still cast 35.3% of all votes, because of a whopping 78% turn-out. And in the 2018 mid-terms, over-61 voters were 37.3% of the electorate, because 65.5% of them turned out. So, what of those Trump-hating under-29 voters in 2018? They cast only 13.8% of all votes, because only 32.6% of them actually voted.
It’s a Broken Promise, Stupid!
Maybe “living on fixed income” is not understood by Biden, Pelosi and Schumer, but every retiree – regardless of political lean – puts self-survival (Medicare) before self-awareness (#MeToo). The politics of a former fire-breathing feminist will change at age 75, if Medicare requires 50% co-pay for her husband’s weekly dialysis. Manchin gets this, but the rest of his party does not. Dumb, because Manchin’s “No” vote has probably saved the Democrat party from itself – and they aren’t grateful.