Republican politicians are thrilled Democrats have created a binary campaign issue out of racial inequality: social justice or law and order. For twelve months, Dems insisted police departments were manned by racists, who killed unarmed black citizens, and needed to be defunded. Latching onto the George Floyd Death video, America’s liberal party declared every cop is a criminal and sanctified men with criminal records.
Timing is everything. After the George Floyd Death video, support for Black Lives Matter rose to 61%, and trust in law enforcement dipped to 56%. One year later, after a summer of arson and looting, soaring crime rates in 63 of America’s 66 largest police jurisdictions, and guilty verdict for Derek Chauvin, support for Black Lives Matter has dropped to 48%, and trust in police has rebounded to 70% (source: Morning Consult and Ipsos polling).
A recent Fox News poll found 73% of Americans believe there is more crime in 2021 than in 2020. Former New York police chief Bill Bratton said Democrat-run cities now acknowledge the “unintended negative consequences” of defund-the-police movements. His words were confirmed by New York governor Andrew Cuomo: “New Yorkers don’t feel safe [because] the crime rate is up. It’s not that they’re being neurotic or overly sensitive – they’re right. They are right.”
Bratton believes “[Democrats] are recognizing in a democracy, the essential element for public safety is the police. You can’t spend most of your time trying to criminalize the activities of the police and decriminalize the activities of criminals. The crime virus was hidden from view. Nobody was particularly paying attention [when] crime came roaring back to the attention of the media.” It’s going to be a 2022 campaign issue because “it’s expanding into our suburbs and rural areas.”
The latest data proves Governor Cuomo was right about major cities. After seeing a 33% rise in homicides last year, America’s largest police jurisdictions report an 18% increase in 2021: up 33% in Chicago and 36% in Los Angeles. Shootings were up 40% in Chicago and 50% in New York in the first quarter, compared to last year (source: CNN). I recently learned from two homicide detectives (Florida and Virginia) that ”liberal” politicians and media are to blame.
Decisions to defund police departments triggered more early retirements and fewer job applications, resulting in too few crime stoppers. The detectives said local criminals know this because of media reports of perp-friendly policing (e.g. Chicago’s new “don’t chase on foot” mandate), claiming suspects now act to force and record “bad” arrests on smart phones. Both said the public “suspects” white male cops because of the media’s “racist cop” narrative. I suspect voters will listen as cops explain ”disproportionate” fatal police shootings.
While the anti-cop movement focuses on the disproportion of 14% of US population (blacks) being 23% of fatal police shootings, the detectives focus on facts other than “racist” cops, citing 30-month data. Crime fell 30% in majority-white neighborhoods and rose 10% in black-majority neighborhoods. Most police-civilian interactions occur after 911 calls (240 million annually). Of 2,321 Americans fatally shot by police, 941 were white and 538 were black.
A black Republican, Senator Tim Scott, has the right idea: social justice and law and order. This is what swing voters (independent) will hear from Republicans in 2022. Scott advocates “better policing” when suspects are subdued and slams Democrat defund-the-police talk as putting politics over public safety. Here’s the deal: those suburban moms, who rejected Trump’s “tough talk” in 2020, will blame Biden when crime spikes close to home or 911 calls go to voicemail.