More than any other ex-president, Donald Trump remains in the news. If he’s not refusing Nikki Haley’s visit to Mar a Lago, he’s to speak at CPAC 2021. This is, of course, because Washington is obsessed with Trump on the 2024 ballot. Hence, the New York Post reports Trump as martyr and New York Times reports Trump as traitor. Mitt Romney says Trump’s a lock for the 2024 GOP nomination. I think the losing incumbent is mostly dead.
Trump’s marketing acumen and showmanship defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. He saw the many forgotten Americans and growing view that Washington did not care about small businesses and working wages. He crafted a hard-sell of star-spangled populism; border security and domestic manufacturing. That did not make him a great leader: perhaps Rubio could have beaten Ms. Clinton, reduced taxes and regulations, and won re-election.
In spite of general support for Trump, I must admit he wasn’t elevated by the office. I chose policies over politesse: lower taxes, fewer regulations, and conservative judges – and Trump delivered. With his economy, his approval should have climbed above 47%, but did not because he took barstool politics too far. This gave deplorable fodder to the press and alienated button-down Republicans (e.g. George Will).
Trump’s offensive barstool persona reared its ugly head after the tragic death of a protestor in Charlottesville. A skilled statesman would stick to the issue: an alt-right motorist killed a young woman. It was a time to mourn, but Trump took on cancel culture. Americans expect presidents to exhibit emotional patience, and Trump never gave it to them. This single flaw alienated college-educated white women (soccer moms); thereby ensuring his 2020 defeat.
Trump lost the suburban moms that supported him in 2016. Hillary Clinton won this voting bloc by 15%, but Joe Biden won these voters by 40 percentage points (source: NBC News). This alone cost Trump Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, despite his gains with Blacks (up 6%), Latinos (up 5%), and Asians (up 11% – source: Brookings). Don’t complicate the autopsy: Trump was killed by suburban moms.
The Republican Party is going to get loud while it separates the right message from the wrong messenger. When Trump speaks this weekend at CPAC 2021, his inner entrepreneur will be testing the waters. He might see a path back to re-election, but it’s hard to make a cake rise twice in politics. Don’t think for a minute that Kevin McCarthy came, and Nikki Haley tried to come, to Mar a Lago to talk about Trump’s re-election.
74 million real votes is impressive and every Republican wants to avoid having Trump “hit back” at them. Thus, Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Mike Lee (R-UT) are going to Mar a Lago to prove they are not Mitt Romney and ward off 2022 primary challengers. Republican 2024 hopefuls, like Nikki Haley, want to tap into the marketing acumen and hard-sell strategy. That’s a delicate dance with Trump, but a wise move.
A 74-year-old ex-president has a short shelf life: there’s a reason he lost. The press will turn every Trump mistake into a deplorable mountain (no way CNN broadcasts his rallies again). The deep state will leak every awful nugget from investigations yet to come. Split-ticket Republicans will unite against him the way centrist Democrats united against Bernie Sanders. Above all, Americans have a penchant for New and Different, and that’s no longer Trump.