Left-wing pundits are cheerily proclaiming the GOP forever dead, which (as you’ll read) is simply not true. In fact, one factor behind a Reagansque landslide in 2024 is America’s woke press, where Enlightenment Liberalism has been replaced by Marxism (e.g. Bari Weis is out, and Dean Baquet in, at the Times). Thus, 66% of America thinks the press puts leftist ideology before facts (source: Edelman), and 60% disapprove of the press. It helps the GOP for voters to tire of “the fix.”
Many things suggest a Republican revival in the 2022 mid-term and 2024 national elections, beginning with Biden’s stature, which resembles that of Jimmy Carter. Both men came to America’s emotional rescue, being elected to “restore decency” and “heal the nation.” And, while, the nice guy won when President Ford was guilty of pardoning Nixon and President Trump was guilty of rabble rousing, moral cleansing is not a long-term gig.
Both men inherited cruel-world realities; runaway inflation and energy crisis for Carter, and runaway debt and pandemic for Biden. And, if Biden get’s dope-slapped by China and Iran, which is what Russia and Iran did to Carter, swing voters will vote for change. Both men share another re-election hurdle; single-party control of the legislature and bureaucracy makes the incumbent responsible for every national problem (and “nice guys” finish last).
Neither Carter nor Biden won big. Carter won 50% of the popular vote and 297 electoral votes, and had no impact on Congress (down 1 senator and up 1 rep). Biden won 51% of the popular vote and 306 electoral votes, and had a net congressional loss (up 3 senators and down 12 reps). Compounding Biden’s woes is that, with only 50 senators and 221 reps on his side, he presides over a slim combined Democrat majority (10) and growing opposition party.
The good news for Democrats ends there. Ballotpedia has released 2020 state-by-state results (hint: the GOP dominated). 54.3% of all state legislators are Republicans, who now control 61 of 98 chambers (62.2%) – and 27 governor’s mansions. The significance of this predominance is threefold:
- The 2020 census will arrive in 32 state capitols where Republicans control both chambers, just in time to re-draw the electoral (and House) map. After 2021 apportionment, there will be 8 solid-red and 2 purple seats (say “good-bye” to Speaker Pelosi).
- In the 2020 statehouse elections, the GOP celebrated a net gain of 139 seats, while Democrats suffered a net loss of 127 seats. Mind you, that broad rejection is an on-going trend.
- Having a 631-seat edge gives the GOP a clear advantage in finding and grooming the “next” Nikki Haley.
Political scientists at George Washington University dug even deeper to find Republicans sitting in 60% of US county and municipal council seats. This granular weakness explains why Biden won only 13% of US counties (509 in total) – the fewest ever by any presidential candidate (winning or losing). Local governments are the “farm teams” that beget big-league politicians. Good candidates matter and the GOP can “call up” talent from the leadership of 53,402 local councils.
While the 2020 county map is NOT proof Biden lost, it is predictive of 2024 and missed by partisan reporters. They cannot claim 2020 proves the entire GOP is un-electable after five years of claiming Donald Trump the “most divisive” and “most offensive” and “worst” candidate in US history. The Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan made the early call that voters could not match (or endure) Trump’s emotional intensity. Ergo, remove the man and restore the party.
Richard Nixon remains the “poster child” of great political collapse, winning 520 electoral and 60.7% of the popular votes in 1972. He was forced to resign in 1974, his doomed party barely lost the presidency in 1976, and it stormed back in 1980 (with 489 electoral votes and 8.2 million popular-vote advantage). Trump, like Nixon, was a flawed candidate perched atop a good movement that can be rallied by a good candidate – and who might that be?
Hard to say for sure, but the guess hear is one of four governors; Greg Abbot (TX), Ron DeSantis (FL), Nikki Haley (SC), and Scott Walker (WI). Walker was denied in 2016, when a too-crowded field handed Trump the nomination, and Nikki Haley has it all (i.e identity, temperament, and experience). Her color and gender will neuter identity politics, and her experience will force Biden (or Harris) to defend results and policies. She is what the party of Lincoln needs to ram down Biden’s throat.