I had lunch with my right-thinking sister, who’s recovering nicely from Trump withdrawal after reading a Wall Street Journal article about a “red tide” election. Having a high EQ, she conflated Trump’s loss with the “blue wave” the press had been touting since last winter. Thanks to the Journal, she now knows a presumed Biden victory is more blue droplet than wave. This blog’s for you, sis!
With the exception of white men, exit polls show President Trump made significant gains with every demographic group. Further, Republicans picked up seats in state legislatures and the House, added a governorship, and can do no worse than 50-50 in the Senate. After flopping in 2016, pollsters, pundits, and reporters promised greater accuracy; so Americans thought the “huge blue wave” predictions were right this time. So – why were they so wrong?
In short, the folks doing the polling and opining were Democrat leans, whose bias resulted in aspirational polls and editorials. Many voters saw and resented this: 73% of Americans saw media bias, and 54% resented deliberate mis-reporting (source: Chicago Tribune). To wit, when CNN voiced “mostly peaceful protest” over videos of violent riots, a massive anti-CNN tweet storm ensued. Such media bias unwittingly aided and abetted Republican candidates.
Old-school liberal Bill Maher blames the red tide on Democrats who “write off half the country as irredeemable” and are clueless that most Americans won’t support a party that “thinks silence is violence and looting is not, chases speakers off college campuses, and makes everyone walk on eggshells.” Maher faulted Democrats for replacing “let’s not see color” with “let’s see it always and everywhere – formerly the position of the Ku Klux Klan.” Ouch!
Rep Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) was just as blunt: “If we are classifying Tuesday as a success, we will get f**king torn apart in 2022” and Conor Lamb (D-PA) agreed: “Democratic rhetoric needs to be dialed back, it needs to be rooted in common sense.” James Clyburn (D-SC) added: “Defund the police is killing our party.” Where were these Democrats in June, when Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) offered a “common sense” bill for better policing? Out trying to create a Blue Wave.
House Democrats now have a 221 to 209 lead over Republicans, losing 8 seats. The GOP gained 9 (5 races not called), but a Red Tide is real and measurable. The GOP can only win in 333 House districts, because of 122 majority-minority districts gerrymandered by the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (102 districts ALWAYS vote Democrat). This means Republicans won two-thirds (209 to 124) of the “pluralist” districts, which is a rout.
For Republicans, 2020 was the practical and moral equivalent of Dunkirk. Ocasio-Cortez won’t control the House, and the census (re-districting) will add 6 GOP and subtract 6 Dem districts (12-seat swing). In 2022, this will combine with the usual backlash against the party with the presidency to flip the House. Of even greater significance is how GOP ideology and demography doom today’s Democrat party.
2020 Republicans won by running against socialism, attracting Latinos (who fled socialism), and in support of law and order. Forget the media spin; elections are about self-survival (gainful employment, lower taxes, and safe neighborhoods). The GOP also ran unprecedented numbers of women and non-white candidates; thereby rendering identity-politics ineffective and forcing Democrats to talk policy.
I believe Trump’s lasting Republican legacy is knowledge. After seeing Democrats rip a Catholic man, Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett. The GOP ran more women for office. Republicans don’t have to cower before a hostile press and can urge moderation in law enforcement and abortion – without fearing cries of “racist” or “sexist.” By inciting cancel culturists and socialists to go public, Trump exposed the left. Like the ghost of Christmas future, he’s scared common sense into America.