In this final election handicap, the guess here is that President Trump ekes out a win. This conclusion is based on today’s reality of economics and race. The former helped Trump attract black and Latino voters, who want money for their families more than to matter to white strangers. The latter has turned “shy” white voters into “frightened” white voters, who aren’t talking to pollsters and cannot wait to vote against the party of identity politics.
Even liberal polling organizations report a material uptick in black and Latino support for Trump, whom they credit for improved employment (more jobs and higher wages). Downer Democrats spoke wishfully – not in alarm – that every market correction was the leading edge of a recession. It is a fact that minority employment hit all-time highs under Trump, and it is naive to suppose working-class voters don’t blame the China Virus or Democrat governors for the lay-offs and shut-downs.
Liberal media have been in BLEXIT denial, stooping to smears of Kanye West as a “black-face minstrel” and blocking Candace Owens’s tweets. A CNN poll shows Trump with 24% of the minority vote. Good, but Rasmussen (correct in 2016) showed Trump with 31% of black votes Thursday – up from 27% on Tuesday. He’s also up with Hispanic voters. This support ties to an economy that expanded 33.1% in the third quarter (source: CNBC).
Polls with models reliant on old data wrongly assume higher minority turn-out for Biden. And, because the media has so demonized Trump supporters, minority respondents are very shy Trump voters. True, and white respondents fear supporting Trump brands them “racists.” Smart polls that ask “who do you think will win” or “who do your neighbors support” show Trump leading (e.g. Fox News reports a “neighbor” poll with Trump at 49% and Biden at 39%).
Identity politics has fathered the love child of reverse systemic racial bias, in which left-wing politicians and media punch up at middle-class white Americans. This began when CNN’s Van Jones blamed whitelash for Trump’s election. Jones claimed whites secretly resented Obama and black empowerment. That theory became left-wing dogma and four years of Democrats proclaiming all conservative policies were rooted in racism. It was always a high-risk gambit.
Democrats created a “silent majority” akin to 1968, because middle-class whites see – but cannot talk about – reverse racial bias. Most whites want police to protect their neighborhoods and don’t think looting is “mostly peaceful protest.” But, fearful of their views being called “racist” or being attacked, the “silent majority” is now really silent. And, no way Main Street agrees with the 1619 Project or wants a re-education in US history.
Neither candidate is campaign perfection: President Trump is “mean” and Joe Biden is gaffe-prone. But this election turns on two questions. Will minorities entrust the economy to Democrats? Do middle-class whites trust Democrats to preserve the land they love? If Republicans have suppressed minority prosperity and Democrats have not divided America, then Biden wins. However, current events work against a Biden victory (as likely as that appears today).