Last weekend, the RNC feared the optics of the final debate. After Trump went postal in the first debate (with a Fox News moderator), can you blame them? Now, they know they’re in a close game with the football (media coverage) and moving the chains. The necessary polls are up, Trump is on message, minority voters are drifting away from Biden, and Republicans are energized. This election is still too close to predict, but Old Man Momentum shifted last week.
The shift began last weekend when the trickle of Biden pay-to-play turned into a flood of credible evidence. Fact: Joe Biden lied with “no involvement, whatsoever.” Fact: big news and social media buried a story that’s more credible than Russiagate. Fact: the FBI is interviewing the latest witness and gathering phone data. Fact: the FBI had Hunter’s laptop in December, and this story would’ve been “credible evidence” against Biden’s character during the Democrat debates.
Biden leads in the Real Clear Politics polling average, but even his campaign has doubts. What is credible is Gallup’s report that 56% of Americans feel better off now than four years ago, Rasmussen’s report of 52% approval for the incumbent, and Zogby’s observation of Biden’s “unforced error” in the debate that alienated energy voters. And like other centrists, Zogby claimed, “Trump had his game on Thursday night.”
Most media agreed Trump was energetic and disciplined in the debate, and Biden tired and stumbled at the end. Frank Luntz’s group of actual independent voters thought Trump won (see photo). COVID is a divisive issue, so the President explained “open-up” as pro-economy. He got Biden to admit anti-carbon views and own the 1994 crime bill. He saw an opening and deftly raised Biden’s pay-to-play skeleton, mocking Joe as a “career politician” after he tried a folksy re-direct from the subject.
Hip-hop radio host Charlamagne the God told CNN’s Don Lemon that Trump “is targeting young black males [and] it’s working.” Prominent black men are helping Trump because he listens and takes their advice. Kanye West wore a MAGA hat after Trump acted to reduce black incarcerations. Ice Cube partnered with Trump’s “Contract with Black America.” 50 Cent said Biden’s tax plan would “turn me into 20 Cent.” With 15% to 20% of black votes, Trump will surpass purple-state polling.
This election’s x-factor is the Republican ground game. Factual data proves newly registered Republicans have closed – even surpassed – the Democrat’s advantage in most states, but a bigger surprise is brewing for Election Day. Left-leaning Politico reported in August, “Trump’s campaign knocks on a million doors a week. Biden’s knocks on zero.” True, Biden’s basement campaign sent texts and robocalls (even to me), but that’s a bad idea in 2020.
Trump’s campaign knows Gilligan’s Law, which posits a voter marooned at home is pre-disposed to welcome a new face at the door. The power of human contact always trumps digital or pre-recorded messaging – because humans crave the surprise and delight of real conversations and facial expressions. Everything about the Biden message is SHELTER IN PLACE. In contrast, Trump’s message is GET OUT AND VOTE. “Open up” was good for the economy and for his re-election. Smart.