Three weeks out and media liberals are convinced Biden is a shoo-in, based on polls that cannot predict elections. The respected Gallup poll realized this in 2012, when it stopped “predictive” presidential polling because no “predictive” models exist. Still, I’d handicap the Trump-Biden race as too close to call, based on the following information
Start with Biden’s campaign manager, who claimed Thursday, “this race is far closer – like a lot closer” (source: New York Times). This is consistent with the Trump campaign’s internal numbers and means CNN (Biden +11) and NBC (Biden +9) are as wrong as in 2016. Back then, Charlie Cook declared the race “over” on October 13th. Still, the national polls suggest Biden wins the popular vote. POLLING ADVANTAGE: Biden
In every presidential election, many voters enter the booth undecided and cast impulse votes by recalling images. Hands down, Trump is embedding superior optics in voter minds. His TV production-quality images compare beautifully to the awful sound and video quality of Biden-Harris Zoom images. Further, Trump’s robust campaign schedule makes Biden appear the weaker man. IMAGE ADVANTAGE: Trump.
The Federalist’s Mollie Hemingway found swing-state polls, in spite of flaws, show Biden’s mid-November lead is identical to Clinton’s in 2016. She reminds that, on Election Day, Trump beat the polls in six swing states (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) by 4.5 to 11.9 points. In North Carolina, for example, Trump won by 3.7 points, despite the Real Clear Politics average of Clinton up 2.7 points (6.4 point swing). Today, the average has Biden up 3.2 points. ELECTORAL ADVANTAGE: Toss-up.
The macro-lesson from 2016 was that situational politics (Trump) beats identity politics (Clinton). Members within aggrieved identity groups live in widely different “situations.” Black voters in Michigan didn’t turn out for Clinton in 2016, and Trump is pushing hard for black and Latino votes, which, if successful, will give him battleground states. In October 2020, the US situation is in the eyes of the beholder. SITUATION ADVANTAGE: Toss-up.
The IMF just upgraded its 2020 outlook for the US economy, reporting 2nd and 3rd quarters beat expectations: “the recovery came sooner in the second quarter and continued in third” because “the increase in number of infections [did not reduce] mobility and activity.” Their rosy outlook was confirmed Friday, when retail sales posted “a big gain (1.9%) as consumers show unexpected strength” (source: CNBC). Right now, many voters have discretionary income. OUTLOOK ADVANTAGE: Trump.
Since 2016, no actor in American politics has sunk as low as the press, which many Americans (87%) think is too partisan. President Trump made this a campaign issue that’s been mostly corroborated. C-span suspended Steve Scully for lying about anti-Trump tweets, vindicating Trump’s second-debate cancellation. By “debating” and “arguing” with the incumbent, Chris Wallace and Savannah Guthrie confirmed anti-Trump bias to open-minded viewers. PRESS ADVANTAGE: Toss-up.
This election is too close to call in a blink-of-the-eye world. There is one more debate and the Barrett judicial confirmation. Current polls show Pelosi as the hold-up with COVID relief. And, if reasonably confirmed, the New York Post has provided voters with the “smoking gun” (Hunter’s laptop) that proves Burisma bribed the Biden family. It’s a good thing voters have more time to decide because Biden is trying to run out the clock.