My in-box has but one question: can Trump win? Yes, if middle-class voters still care about property rights and self-determination. In 1831, Alexis de Tocqueville noted the vast majority of Americans owned property. Thus, they respected the property of others and avoided the riots of France. By Election Day, Trump will look good to middling Americans, who’ve seen enough of Antifa and heard enough from Marxists.
As I watched this summer of arson and looting, the audio and video did not align. The black-hooded rioters were screaming “black lives matter” while they were destroying black property (businesses, cars and homes). Black Lives Matter (BLM) harassed Portland’s gentrified neighborhoods, as if no black Americans lived there (they do). Yes, many whites (74%) own homes, but so do 44% of blacks and 48% of Latinos – and those percentages are growing (source: USCB).
A multiracial middle class must decide if the riots are rooted in racial injustice or political revolution. If there is systemic racism in American, why are 9.2 million sub-Saharan Africans waiting for green cards today? This is true, and BLM admits Marxist roots (specifically, the abolition of property). Most, if not all, middling Americans see the real problem; systemic poverty caused by bad schools, broken families and stagnant wages.
Because the blind spot in identity politics is situation, Democrats don’t see how multiracial America’s underclass is. They see poor blacks and Hispanics, and blame white native supremacists. They don’t see growing numbers of poor whites, whose poverty can be traced to bad schools, broken families and no wage growth – and why is that? Because radical thought influencers, who detest middle-class values, pushed racial-injustice dogma.
The hole in racial-injustice dogma is ignoring many millions of black and Hispanic Americans that achieved the American Dream (property and prosperity) through the middle-class virtues of education, hard work, and thrift. It also ignores many millions of black and Hispanic Americans whose American Dream includes business and home ownership (their property). The proof is streaming daily on social media; minorities begging “protestors” to spare their property.
While not monolithic, middle-class voters hold a narrow view of what is proper government support and predictability. They want support from an affordable care act, if they’re free to choose doctors and plans, and 911 calls to predictably result in police arriving on the scene. Guess what? They can fear COVID-19 and socialized medicine, and hate racist cops and defunding police departments. Thus, the middle class wants “progress” to be slow and steady.
With the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the political wild card is President Trump’s appointment of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Ignore the liberal talking points (overturning Roe), because middle-class voters will remember how Barrett is treated on Election Day. Harris and Hirono shamed Kavanaugh as a preppie Lothario, but trying to slut-shame Barrett will only portray them as mean girls.
This leaves Democrats with complex legalese and identity politics. Left-right legal nuance will be forgotten, but not attacks on Barrett’s faith or feminine choices. 74% of Americans adhere to some religious faith (source: USCB) and few believe Barrett’s Catholicism is grounds for disqualification. 86% of American women are mothers and 72% of American moms hold jobs. It’s absurd in 2020 to question how Barrett can be both justice and mom.
2020 is a political enigma, but the guess here is that presidential debates and senate hearings work to Trump’s advantage. Because Trump’s a known known, it’s Biden’s race to lose. If he’s wishy-washy on this summer’s riots, too tough on cops, suggests white Americans are racists, opposes school choice, fumbles his healthcare message, or his senate colleagues mistreat Judge Barrett, he loses votes. Bottom line: the middle class has core values it doesn’t believe make them deplorable.