Trump gains traction

Democrats must hand it to President Trump, the first Republican to truly woo black voters and see an uptick in his minority support. Around the time of the RNC, most polls saw the same minority uptick reported by Hill-HarrisX (who poll only registered voters): 24% of Blacks and 32% of Hispanics now approve of the President. I suspect these numbers are the reason Trump’s overall approval rose to 52% in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Any shift in minority votes toward Trump spells electoral-map trouble for Joe Biden. For example, both Monmouth and Rasmussen show him tied with Biden in Pennsylvania because Trump’s black support rose to 27%. A “minority firewall” in swing states helps Trump in two ways: (1) he gains “impossible votes” and (2) Biden loses “presumed votes.” Some pundits credit the RNC’s symbology, where non-whites and woman dominated the podium, for the shift.

  • The GOP knows most black voters are God-loving, family-caring, law-abiding, and tired of negative stereotyping. Trump spoke to forgotten black Americans by celebrating two exemplary ex-cons, Jon Ponder and Alice Johnson
  • Blacks and Hispanics lean pro-life; so former Planned Parenthood director Abby Johnson and army surgeon-turned-nun Deirdre Byrne helped. Hard to top Johnson’s in-the-room-where-it-happened abortion recap or Byrne’s statement that “life begins at conception.”
  • The GOP allowed three black politicians, Tim Scott, Daniel Cameron and Vernon Jones, to tear into Joe Biden for presuming “real” black voters must vote for him.

Actually, the RNC was just a recap of what black and Hispanic voters have observed since 2017; Trump rhetoric and results. Both groups want gainful jobs, criminal justice reform, and support for Christian values. And, despite biased media, most Blacks and Latinos know Trump has been working on their issues since 2017. Great, but there is something else – even more powerful – moving Trump’s numbers.

Coronavirus, violence, and Democrat posturing have frustrated black and Hispanic communities. In response to COVID-19, blue-state governors shut down service jobs, hurting black and Latino incomes – when red-state governors erred on the side of jobs. Blue-state governors proclaimed “health first” and “black lives matter.” However, minorities found neighborhood hospitals ill-equipped to save their lives, and protests give way to arson and looting that hurt mostly black lives.

A majority of black city dwellers know police-killings of black men is a rarity – even as they decry police brutality and racial profiling. Democrat mayors, like Chicago’s Lori Lightfoot, rightly cited the Floyd video as proof of police brutality to a black man and wrongly decided down-sizing police departments would save black lives. Actually, minorities want better cops – not no police.

Minority voters are asking why Democrats and media politicize cops and crimes. Blacks and Hispanics know who’s committing the crimes (locals) and where crimes happen (locally). Using 2019 data from New York City, 96% of all shooters and shooting victims, 74% of rape victims and 81% of rape suspects, 69% of robbery victims and 93% of robbery suspects, and 80% of assault victims and 86% of assault suspects were non-white.

Why should black voters trust Democrats to protect their lives? After all, when Democrats cut school budgets, minority educations suffered most. And, when employers followed whites to the suburbs, Democrats had no ideas. Already in 2020, New York reports 55 more black murder victims and 495 more black gunshot victims than in 2019 (source: New York Post). Perhaps minorities recall Trump’s 2016 question, what have you got to lose? Just black lives and livelihoods.

By Spencer Morten

The writer is a retired CEO of a US corporation, whose views were informed by studies and work in the US and abroad. An economist by education, and pragmatist by experience, he believes the greatest threat to peace and prosperity are the loudest voices with the least experience and expertise.