Everything now points to a Biden win in November, and maybe a Democrat sweep. Trump is lagging in the polls, because COVID took the wind out of the economy’s sails and disrupted societal norms. In fact, 2020 resembles 1968 – except the GOP is the party of our discontent. In a close race, COVID is working against Mr. Trump: he can’t build momentum at his rallies, and Biden doesn’t have to speak (poorly) in public. Still, it’s a little early to bet the ranch on Biden.
Pollsters have not fixed the structural flaws that predicted Clinton in 2016. Pew Research finds the major flaw of 2016 still exists: polls “still aren’t accounting for the fact that voters with greater educational attainment are more likely to complete surveys – and more likely to vote for Democrat[s]” (source: Politico). And, a new Cato survey reports more “shy” Trump voters: 62% of Americans fear expressing political views – and 34% of conservatives worry their political views will get them fired or passed over.
This does not mean polling has no credible predictors – and those suggest a Trump victory. David Catron reports in The American Spectator of a survey gap: who voters will “vote for” is not the same as who they believe “will win.” Public-opinion research in the USA and Europe finds “citizen forecasts” – not citizen preferences – are “the most accurate method we have to predict election outcomes” (source: Public Opinion Quarterly).
Harry Enten (CNN) recently reported, “an average of recent polls found a majority of voters (about 55%) believe that Trump will defeat Biden.” This is bad for Biden: since 1988, expectations surveys have been more accurate than expert judgement, prediction markets, quantitative models, or vote intention polls. This is true, and between 1952 and 2008, there were 77 state-level presidential races when voter-intention and voter-expectation polls differed. Voter expectations were correct 60 times (78%), compared to 17 times for voter intention (22%).
Most conservatives don’t trust the legacy media, meaning we must judge the nation’s political mood for ourselves. Because everyone has made up his or her mind about Trump, this is Biden’s election to lose and he faces two hurdles.
- The debates will test Biden’s memory and mental acuity, which is a real concern to independent voters. Every time he forgets BIG NOUNS (e.g. the UK prime minister’s name) and BIG NUMBERS (e.g. COVID-19 deaths), write it down. 5 gaffes invite break-room chatter, 10 invite late-night ridicule, and a stuttering outburst turns Sleepy Joe into a national security threat (not good).
- If Mega-Trends were active, they’d find law-and-order dominates the news. Take a two-week period, divide the number of videos you watch of Democrat mayors making excuses by the number of cities where looting, murder and vandalism have been on TV. Anything over 50% equates to a moral majority seething at home – waiting to cast a law-and-order vote.
This is a particularly tough presidential election to handicap, because both candidates are flawed men and vulnerable to poll-dropping embarrassing moments. Biden’s handlers know this, so the run of show is less is more until the debates, where they hope he’s seen and rarely heard.